Arms Races

There’s nothing that isn’t obvious here. I’m just so mad I have to post something.

First the Americans  say that uranium enrichment is a valid part of a civilian nuclear program, but only for countries it likes.

If you were Iran, how would you respond to nuclear proliferation among American allies?

Now we hear about a huge arms deal with Saudi Arabia (BBC) :

The United States is reported to be preparing a major arms deal with Saudi Arabia worth $20bn (£9.8bn) over the next decade.

It is said to be part of a strategy for countering Iran’s growing strength.

If you were Iran, how would you respond to additional American arms in the middle east?

Of course, the Americans realise that someone in the region is likely to be pissed off when large amounts of arms start rolling off the ships in Saudi Arabia. But they have a plan to deal with that:

To counter objections from Israel, they said, the Jewish state would be offered significantly increased military aid.

If you were Iran, how would you respond to increased American military aid to Israel?

Of course, the Americans realise that other Arab states in the region are likely to be pissed off because the Saudis are being treated as a favourite. But they have a plan to deal with that too:

Other US allies in the region – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman,
Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – could receive equipment and
weaponry as part of the deal, the officials said.

If you were designing a policy to encourage Iran to build nuclear weapons and expand its military capabilities, is there anything that you would do differently? I can’t think of anything.

Dave Meleney

This is a difficult post to write.

Those of you who read the comments section of the blog will have seen quite a few comments by Dave Meleney, a libertarian from Colorado. Sadly I found out – simply because I looked at a google search that came to this weblog and clicked a link – that Dave died last Thursday in an accident while trimming trees. The link I clicked led to a brief note here.

As is the way with Internet contacts I knew a few things about Dave, but almost nothing about his real life. I knew that he was a Bonsai enthusiast who had grown huge numbers of bonsai trees, and yet I didn’t know how old he was. I knew that he had been to China, but not what he looked like.

The other thing I know is that Dave commented on weblogs a lot (both here at Whimsley and elsewhere, at Marginal Revolution for example). Most recently we had a brief exchange in which he posted a comment last Wednesday (link) that I replied to a few days later, not having a clue of what had happened in the meantime. We disagreed – mainly over the role of multinational companies in poor countries, which he saw as overall hugely positive for the poorest people in those countries, and over the role of government – but he was unfailingly polite and thoughtful and articulate. He even offered my family the use of a cabin even though we had never met and even though I don’t know what family he has.

So I am in the odd position of saying that I will miss Dave, even though I hardly knew him. I am convinced he was a kind and generous man -something that emails I have received in the last 24 hours from a couple of people who did know him better confirms.  My heart goes out to his family.

If it is not inappropriate I’d like to suggest that anyone of his Internet contacts who has read his comments and engaged in conversation with Dave, and who wishes to express their condolences, might go to the posting at the Libertarian Party of Colorado and add a brief note to the comments there.

Rest in peace Dave.

If That’s All Right With You – A Modest Manifesto

My "Happy Shoes" series seems to have faded out one episode before I meant it to. Oh well, maybe I’ll get back to it soon. Meanwhile, here is a something a little different, which owes a lot to various posts by Chris Dillow at Stumbling and Mumbling.


The names of Vasili Arkhipov and Stanislav Petrov do not appear in most lists of 20th century heroes, but they should. After all, who else could claim to have literally saved the world?

Arkhipov’s moment came during the Cuban Missile Crisis on October 27, 1962, when he was an officer on a Soviet nuclear-armed submarine. When the submarine was bombarded by an American ship an intelligence officer on board thought "that’s it – the end" and the captain gave the order to prepare to fire a nuclear missile. Had the missile launched, nuclear war would have begun, but firing a nuclear warhead required the approval of three officers and Arkhipov prevailed on his fellow officers to wait — and things calmed down. When the story became public in 2002 Thomas Blanton, director of the US National Security Archive, said simply: "A guy called Vasili Arkhipov saved the world".

In 1983, Stanislav Petrov was monitoring the Soviet early warning satellites for signs of a US attack. His instructions were clear: if he detected missiles targeting the USSR he was "to push the button and launch a counter-offensive". But when the system showed five missile launches in the US all headed towards the USSR, sirens blared and warning lights flashed, and a room full of people waited for him to push the button, he didn’t. It didn’t look right to him and he reported the alarm to his superiors but declared it false. Petrov was right: the signal was a false alarm triggered by the satellite itself, and a war was averted.

You could hardly find two more unheroic heroes. They were not powerful generals or strong warriors, they were mid-level functionaries in the Soviet military: small cogs in a very big machine, far from the centres of political power. And their actions were not the decisive, bold gestures that we expect from heroes but were cautious and sceptical. When others demanded action their heroic response was to say "let’s wait and see".

We should value modest people such as Arkhipov and Petrov more highly. It is time for modest people to get the credit they deserve.


Look around. It is easy to see what kind of character traits we value. We nourish "leaders" all the way from elementary school (where programs select "leaders of tomorrow") through university scholarships and on into the adult world. We heap admiration on those who succeed in reaching positions of power. We encourage single-minded ambition with every book or show or speaker that tells you to "find your passion" or "follow your dream". We applaud extroverts for their gregariousness and self-confidence.

On the other hand, we undervalue traits such as meekness, generosity, doubt, introversion, a sense of balance, gentleness, irony and competence. In short, we reward arrogance and punish modesty. (I don’t mean modesty as in women covering up their bodies so that men don’t get excited, of course, I mean modesty as in a sense of limits, lack of pretension).

These unbalanced values distort many aspects of our culture. Consider heroism. We search for our heroes among those who are "exceptional" (climb higher mountains, score more goals, make more money…) but a different and better idea of heroism is possible, in which heroic acts are those that reveal our humanity. Arkhipov and Petrov are two examples. For another, consider the 17th century inhabitants of the village of Eyam (rhymes with dream) in Derbyshire, England. I heard of this from John Trevor‘s song "Roses of Eyam", as sung by the wonderful Roy Bailey. The song records how the villagers gave up their lives when bubonic plague arrived in Eyam by sealing themselves off to make sure the  disease did not spread to the surrounding areas. The number who died varies according to the telling: some say 259 of 333, some 318 from 350, but there was no doubt that those who sealed themselves off had little chance of survival. There was nothing grandiose here – no rewards, no trophies, no immortality save of the most simple kind. And yet how much more heroic these unknown people are than, say, Bill Gates or Bono.

James Joyce realized that our common humanity is at the core of heroism. By building the greatest novel of the twentieth century around a day in the life of a Leopold Bloom — a middle-aged, cuckolded, advertising salesman — Joyce highlighted the epic nature of everyday life. And he is right; the great things in life are universal. Birth and death, giving birth, caring for others: you don’t need to explore the remote corners of the world to find these things, yet what can be greater? As Chris Dillow reminds us, Thomas Gray knew the value of modest lives. In his "Elegy Written in a Country Churchyard" he surveyed the graves of the "rude Forefathers" of a hamlet:

Let not Ambition mock their useful toil,
Their homely joys, and destiny obscure;
Nor Grandeur hear with a disdainful smile
The short and simple annals of the Poor

The poet reminds us of the importance and nobility of modest work compared to the contributions of those who enjoy "the pomp of power".  Dillow again: "All the essentials of life come from the little people who clean the streets and make our food. The humblest binman has done more good for me in the last 10 years than [Tony] Blair’s managed." Or, as I read in a cookbook, "The discovery of a new dish does more for human happiness than the discovery of a star".

We would have better politicians and CEOs if a sense of service – an inherently modest quality – rather than "leadership quality" was seen as a character trait to be rewarded, and if they recognized that their success comes as much from luck and the quirks of history as from merit. And even those who do reach the pinnacles with good motives must be treated with suspicion. Power of all strands does, after all, corrupt, and those who see power are the most vulnerable to corruption.

Public discourse suffers from the same warped perspective. Those who parade bold visions and big ideas gain much of the limelight, but such efforts often have more to say about the vanity and presumption of their authors than about the reach of their intellects. A discourse based on big ideas is prone to being diverted by demagogues. Flashy writing and speaking does have its place, but mainly as popularization, and it means little if not built on cautious and detailed work carried out by those with more modest aims. The devil is often in the details and the world can more often be seen by looking closely at a grain of sand than by scanning the far horizon.

Vanity is linked to what must be The Word For 2007: "passionate". At every turn it seems that we are told that the way to happiness is to "find your passion". Companies boast that they have a "passion for excellence". Be all you can be. Follow your dream.

Such ideas are literally self-centred, and are the opposite of the modest life. When you are the star of your own life, those around you are reduced to supporting roles. Who, I cannot help but wonder, is paying for that dream? Who is finding the children’s clothes while you are busy finding your passion? Usually it is the family members who have to suffer the absences (physical and mental) of the dreamer. Conor Cruise O’Brien has been called "the greatest living Irishman", yet in a trip to Toronto in the 1990s he was without his family for once, and he was at a loss. Why? Because his family members usually handled the money, the arrangements, the mundane details of his trips. Surely no one who gets those around him to do the drudge work can be considered "great".

Passion not only leads to a self-centred life; it is also the enemy of scepticism, of doubt, and of reflection. To be passionate is to be blinkered. Evangelists, monomaniacs, and demagogues are as passionate as anyone, and follow their dream wherever it takes them. But they are terrible role models. We would do better to emulate those who make and accept the compromises of a modest life; those who treat people around them with respect, who accept that others have dreams too and that, if we all give a little, we may not reach our dream but we may have a better world.

It’s not that we should cast down the extrovert and immodest. Every parade needs a leader and, as the saying goes, "you can’t lead a parade if you think you look funny sitting on a horse". Movies need stars and some rock bands benefit from a little swagger, but the point is that the starring role, while it grabs the spotlight, is just one of many that combine to produce the finished event. The star cannot shine without a supporting cast. Every great band needs its rhythm section, every orchestra its second fiddles. No politician gets elected without dedicated campaign workers and no matter how comfortable you feel on a horse, you can’t lead a parade all on your own because that’s not a parade. We need to remember that music, parades, and other events are collective efforts, and value those who feel more comfortable behind the scenes together with those who revel in the spotlight.

Of all roles, perhaps that of the spectator is least appreciated. Being a spectator is seen as passive and uninspired: how often do you hear the phrase "mere spectator" contrasted with "active participant"? Yet us spectators have an essential part to play too, because great events are made great by their spectators. What is a cup final without the fans? A rock concert without the crowd? A festival without the festival-goers? Or consider books: novelist Zadie Smith recently wrote that "A novel is a two-way street, in which the labour  required on either side is, in the end, equal… Reading is a skill and an art and readers should take pride in their abilities and have no shame in cultivating them if for no other reason than the fact that writers need you".

Extroverts, as Jonathan Rauch says in a widely-read essay, dominate public life. "This is a pity", he goes on, "If introverts ran the world, it would no doubt be a calmer, saner,  more peaceful sort of place." Yet introverts get little respect:   

Extroverts are seen as bighearted, vibrant, warm, empathic. "People person" is a compliment. Introverts are described with words like "guarded", "loner", "reserved", "taciturn", "self-contained", "private" – narrow, ungenerous words.

There are good reasons for this. Extroverts, after all, are in a good position to spread the idea that being outgoing is a good thing. Introverts, on the other hand, are not well suited to evangelize the virtues of quiet.

Restoring a balance will not be easy, because it demands immodest behaviour of modest people. It is difficult to promote the quiet virtues in a world drowning in the verbiage of the loudmouthed. Does it even make sense to stage an outspoken demand for modesty (if that’s all right with you?), a brash call for humility, a blunt demand for subtlety, an uncompromising plea for flexibility? Can we be unequivocally on the side of doubt? Does it make sense to spout a monologue on the benefits of shutting the hell up?

Probably not. The very idea of a manifesto is, of course, immodest. But I think it could be saved by something that is lacking in this attempt, which is irony. Perhaps someone else can do a better job.

We should be able to speak up while accepting the limits of our own arguments if we acknowledge (with Leonard Cohen) that "there is a crack in everything. That’s how the light gets in." Contradiction is an opportunity to learn rather than a debate to be fought. Thesis and antithesis are the beginning of synthesis. In exploring both sides of contradictions and arguments we learn to see both sides of a dispute, empathize with hurts and griefs that are not our own, and start to see the cracks in our own beliefs. And that must surely be a goal of any modest agenda – although not before we get the immodest down off their high horses and get them to shut up for a minute.

Bard of Salford

Procrastinating at  YouTube I type in sentimental search terms in hope of dredging up long lost gems.

And I am not disappointed. The magnificent  John Cooper Clarke is there – about 50 separate videos,some original, others homages to the man.

For those who have not had the pleasure, here are a few nasal rhymes from a true original:

Health Fanatic

Beasley Street

I mustn’t go down to the sea again

Happy Shoes IV – Activists and Consumer Magazines

In Happy Shoes II I argued that if the market is left to isolated consumers and companies, the prospects for ethical consumption are bleak. The primary barrier to
establishing fair trade is reliable information about production conditions, not the
ethical standards of those in the boardrooms. When individual consumers cannot
verify ethical production and when even well-meaning companies cannot prove
that they are walking the walk, the outcome is as
if we didn’t care about ethical production at all. In the absence of reliable
information ethical companies are punished; in the presence of reliable
information even scummy companies may find it worth their while to behave
ethically.

So how do we get reliable information? One thing is for certain: as individual consumers we are
not going to collect that information ourselves. It costs a lot more than the
$20 premium our archetypal consumer is prepared to pay to verify factory
conditions in Bangladesh.

Free-market enthusiasts says that self
reporting and brand reputation will do the trick, because brands tell consumers what
the company stands for (essentially the Potter & Heath argument I quoted in Happy Shoes I). But brands are cheap talk: smart consumers know that
for every company claiming to stand for decency that actually does the
right thing, there’s another one mouthing the words while screwing its
employees, and that we can’t tell the difference. What a company says about
its own behaviour is inherently untrustworthy – it has too many reasons to bend the truth. That’s obviously why voluntary "codes of practice" have been
taken with such a big shovel of salt (two examples: see Charles Fishman on
Wal-Mart here,
or the Nike Andrew
Young affair
from a few years ago).
That’s not cynicism, that’s realism.

Nevertheless, many kinds of verification bodies have appeared
to put varying degrees of teeth into the codes, from the use of professional
auditors (Ernst & Young for example) to industry self-government bodies (the Fair
Labor Association in the USA) to independent specialist groups (Verite being
an example) to bodies with roots in activism (Workers’ Rights Consortium).
Some monitor, some provide complaint-handling mechanisms as an
alternative.

But there are
incentives at work for these monitoring bodies too. There are
incentives for those paid by the companies to develop a collusive
relationship over time; those acting on behalf of activist may have
incentives to exaggerate. More ambiguity and puzzlement.

And what’s more, the
variety of verifiers is matched by the variety of possible criteria for
"ethics". Ethical production is not, after all, an all-or-nothing
affair. Wages, rights, conditions, harassment, broken employment
contracts and so on are all issues that come into play.

In the face of all this complexity (which will differ from
product to product, market to market) is there anything
general that we can say? Obviously the specifics of each case are of overriding importance – and you should
look elsewhere for them – but perhaps we can get just a little something out of simplistic thinking.

Information about
production is a public good. Consumers are in a particularly bad place
when it comes to producing such public goods for a few reasons: we
cannot easily cooperate with other consumers because shopping is such
an individual act, we are a heterogeneous bunch with differing
preferences, and we live in many different places, each of which makes
it more difficult to coordinate our actions.

It is no surprise,
then, that the biggest successes of the anti-sweatshop movement came at
universities, and in particular from student activists putting pressure
on the production of university-branded goods. First, university
students are a relatively homogeneous crowd. Second, they are all
lumped together on campus, so there is a lot of peer pressure over who
wears what. Third, they can influence production not just as consumers
at the till of the university store, but as students who have a voice
in university governance. The fact that the Collegiate Licensing
Company was agent for 160 universities provides a focus for political
pressure across campuses, and one with enough clout to transmit that
pressure to the producers. So political action becomes the mechanism
for collectively expressing individual consumer preferences for ethical
production.

Seen in this light,
rag-tag groups of black-clad, drum-pounding anarchists are performing a
role not too different to that of consumer magazines. They are
highlighting the information needed to enable consumers to make better
choices, and to help markets function better. Not a role they would
identify with, perhaps,but a useful one nonetheless.

One thing about information is that it may
cost a lot to find it out, but it can then be easily made available to
many people. The codes and practices adopted as a result of activist
pressure have been used in the wider marketplace as a way for other
consumers to identify ethically-produced goods, and giving companies
prepared to make such a commitment a chance to make money off it.

We get to free-ride off the efforts of activists but this is not, I guess, a form of free-riding they would object to.

There’s one other thing I think can be said from simple thinking about information, but I’ll save it for tomorrow (or so).

Happy Shoes III – A few references

Thanks for the comments, both here and on Brad DeLong’s blog.

The message of the previous post was supposed to be that, if left to only isolated consumers and companies,
the prospects for ethical consumption are bleak. As
several people pointed out, in the real world things do look a little
brighter. But all the useful action in credence goods – whether it is the kosher certification market
or fair trade labelling organizations or trade restrictions – happens
because of groups other than the usual competitive
market actors.

Also, if there is nothing new under the sun there is definitely nothing new on this blog. I’m just trying to work out some things about consumer activism and labour standards "in my own words" after finishing reading Can Labor Standards Improve Under Globalization?
by Kimberly Ann Elliott and Richard B. Freeman which, despite being a
candidate for the most boring title in the history of publishing, is a
fine and practical survey of everything from the role of activist
groups to governmental and transnational institutions like the WTO and
the ILO. I highly recommend it.

For anyone interested, here is a selection of other writing on and around this subject that is available to those of us who don’t have everyday university access to journals (most are PDF links):

The
evolution of credence goods in customer markets: exchanging `pigs in
pokes
‘, Esben Sloth Andersen and Kristian Philipsen Draft, revised January 10, 1998

Monitoring Labor Standards in a Macroeconomic Context Bill Gibson, April 2003

LABOUR AND ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS: the “Lemons Problem” in
International Trade Policy
EUGENE BEAULIEU AND JAMES GAISFORD, May
2001

Is There Consumer Demand for Improved Labor Standards? Evidence from Field Experiments in Social Labeling, Michael J. Hiscox and Nicholas F. B. Smyth, 2006?

Timothy J Feddersen, Thomas W Gilligan (2001)  Saints and Markets:
Activists and the Supply of Credence Goods
  Journal of Economics &
Management Strategy 10 (1), 149–171.

Fair Trade as an Approach to Managing Globalization Michael J. Hiscox, conference on Europe and the Management of Globalization, Princeton University, February 23, 2007.

Signaling Social Responsibility, Jason Scott Johnston, Robert G. Fuller, Jr., November 2005, Working Paper No. 14, A Working Paper of the: Corporate Social Responsibility Initiative

Corporate Social Irresponsibility by Aaron Chatterji and Siona Listokin, Democracy, Winter 2007 (via Economist’s View)

PREFERENCES FOR PROCESSES: THE PROCESS/PRODUCT DISTINCTION AND THE
REGULATION OF CONSUMER CHOICE
, Harvard Law Review Douglas A. Kysar,
December 2004

Next post – back to some actual content.