FutureEverything: Notes Against Openness

I’m really look­ing for­ward to being part of FutureEv­ery­thing in Man­ches­ter next week, where I’ll be a pan­el­list at Open Data Man­ches­ter on Tues­day and at Poli­cies and Pol­i­tics of Open Data on Thurs­day. Each event starts with five-minute lead-ins from the panel mem­bers. Some of the pan­el­lists are real experts who know more than I do about open data, but “in for a penny, in for a pound”: so on Tues­day I’ll use my five min­utes to argue against stan­dards (and espe­cially uni­ver­sal stan­dards), and on Thurs­day I’ll argue that open­ness is an idea that has out­lived its usefulness.

Here are notes for Thursday’s open­ing remarks, which will be famil­iar to reg­u­lar read­ers. I think I’ll have to cut them down a bit for time.


We all know that the ideas and actions around “Open Gov­ern­ment Data” have cre­ated a very wide umbrella that cov­ers many dif­fer­ent agen­das. It cov­ers civil lib­er­ties cam­paign­ers, civic activists, star­tups, politi­cians from across the polit­i­cal spec­trum, and major inter­na­tional cor­po­ra­tions. And we all know that those agen­das and groups are a bit uncom­fort­able being in such close prox­im­ity. But like “free­dom”, “open­ness” is some­thing that every­one can agree on, and it’s served to paper over the cracks between these dis­parate interests.

Unfor­tu­nately, it looks to me increas­ingly as if the lan­guage of trans­parency, the lan­guage of non-commercial civic engage­ment, and the roman­tic lan­guage of rebel­lion are being used to pro­vide an excit­ing and appeal­ing facade for an agenda that has noth­ing to do with trans­parency, noth­ing to do with civic par­tic­i­pa­tion, and a lot to do with tra­di­tional power pol­i­tics and profit making.

It’s time to get out from under the umbrella and to acknowl­edge that we are in dif­fer­ent camps with dif­fer­ent goals. And to do that we need to get rid of the idea that “open­ness” is an unal­loyed virtue.

Here are two exam­ples of how open­ness is being misused.

The first is about open­ness and trans­parency, and it’s from Canada where I live and of which I am a cit­i­zen. The Gov­ern­ment of Canada has an active open data pro­gram. It’s a mem­ber of the Open Gov­ern­ment Part­ner­ship, now chaired by Fran­cis Maude; if you look in Capgemini’s recent white paper on The Open Data Econ­omy you’ll see Canada together with the UK, the USA, France, and Aus­tralia as one of the gov­ern­ment trend­set­ters. Last Octo­ber Jonathan Rosen­berg of Google posted an arti­cle on the com­pany web site titled “The Future is Open”, in which he wrote:

Claims to gov­ern­men­tal trans­parency are one thing – moves like the one Canada made recently, with its for­mal Open Gov­ern­ment Dec­la­ra­tion, are another. The doc­u­ment recog­nises that open is an active state, not a pas­sive one – it’s not just that data should be free to cit­i­zens when­ever pos­si­ble, but that an active ‘cul­ture of engage­ment’ should be the goal of such measures.

So three cheers for open gov­ern­ment Canada? Of course, that’s only one side of the story. Here’s a list of other events in Canada around open­ness and transparency.

  • Library and Archives Canada, which is the equiv­a­lent of the British Library, has seen its acqui­si­tion and lend­ing pro­grams cut back. Its his­tor­i­cal item spend­ing has been cut from $385K (’08-’09) to $12K (’12-’13) as its over­all bud­get has been cut from $173M to $108M. (Toronto Star, March 10, 2013)
  • The Gov­ern­ment is “muz­zling its sci­en­tists” accord­ing to the BBC. A pro­to­col intro­duced in 2008 requires that “all inter­view requests for sci­en­tists employed by the gov­ern­ment must first be cleared by offi­cials. A deci­sion as to whether to allow the inter­view can take sev­eral days, which can pre­vent gov­ern­ment sci­en­tists com­ment­ing on break­ing news sto­ries. Sources say that requests are often refused and when inter­views are granted, gov­ern­ment media rela­tions offi­cials can and do ask for writ­ten ques­tions to be sub­mit­ted in advance and elect to sit in on the interview.”
  • Cuts to Sta­tis­tics Canada: in response to yet another wave of cuts, a group of con­cerned aca­d­e­mics recently wrote that “For many of us, it started with the cen­sus. In a con­tro­ver­sial move, our gov­ern­ment switched from a manda­tory to a vol­un­tary cen­sus in the sum­mer of 2010. The for­mer Sta­tis­tics Canada chief, the media and the research com­mu­nity reacted with shock and largely opposed the change to no avail … We have now halted the col­lec­tion and analy­sis of our most infor­ma­tive lon­gi­tu­di­nal infor­ma­tion on our labour force, on the work­place, on health and health care, and on child well-being. Add to this our uni­ver­sal cen­sus of the pop­u­la­tion. How might Canada expect to meet the pol­icy chal­lenges of the future when we no longer have the abil­ity to under­stand where we are today?” (Uni­ver­sity of Man­i­toba)
  • The move to pack­ag­ing leg­is­la­tion in so-called “Omnibus bills” that cover many dif­fer­ent ini­tia­tives in a sin­gle, per­haps sev­eral hun­dred page, pack­age has severely cur­tailed pub­lic debate over new ini­tia­tives and major leg­isla­tive changes.

If there’s a mes­sage here, it’s just that open­ness can­not be mea­sured in bytes. And if some­one is mea­sur­ing it in bytes, then you have to won­der what the motives are. So the CapGem­ini report (above) looks at the Open Data Econ­omy sim­ply by com­par­ing the open data por­tals that each nation has pro­duced. This is datawashing.

A brief sec­ond story. If you look at what kind of new eco­nomic pos­si­bil­i­ties are being pro­moted by open data, CapGem­ini high­lights Zil­low, a Real Estate Adver­tis­ing net­work based in Cal­i­for­nia, which uses open tax data, county records, and home-for-sale list­ings. If there is one indus­try who has proved able to use the lan­guage of open­ness and dis­rup­tion to great effect, it’s the Sil­i­con Val­ley ven­ture cap­i­tal indus­try. But whereas when Linus Tor­valds started Linux “open­ness” was a tool for indi­vid­u­als to build some­thing to com­pete with large enter­prises, now “open­ness” is a tool for large enter­prises with a lot of fund­ing to ham­mer smaller non-profit groups. We hear the lan­guage of open­ness and dis­rup­tion com­ing in edu­ca­tion, where Cours­era and Udac­ity can go to Davos and paint them­selves as rad­i­cals, to Uber and AirBnB, whosee mil­lion­aires claim to be part of a “shar­ing econ­omy” dis­rupt­ing night­mare over­lords like the Bed & Break­fast indus­try or the taxi car­tels. We are see­ing the emer­gence of a winner-take-all econ­omy in which small orga­ni­za­tions and small busi­nesses are severely hand­i­capped against those with cap­i­tal behind them. All in the name of openness.

If we see civic par­tic­i­pa­tion as an end in itself, which I do, then we need to treat civic com­put­ing like a cul­tural activ­ity. That means we need to build some bar­ri­ers to pro­tect civic-scale groups from large com­pa­nies who have advan­tages of scale, and who can deliver “effi­ciency” but not par­tic­i­pa­tion. Tony Ageh of the BBC, speak­ing at this con­fer­ence, describes a vision of pub­lic domain data as a “com­mons” but I think he gets it wrong. A com­mons is not a free-for-all, where any­one can come and take any­thing they want. A com­mons sug­gests a group of peo­ple who all have an inter­est in main­tain­ing and cul­ti­vat­ing a shared resource, and that sug­gests lim­its to access from out­side. There is room for a num­ber of mod­els of pro­vid­ing mixed access to data, from non-commercial licenses, to closed part­ner­ships between cities and cit­i­zen groups, to non-standard for­mats for shar­ing that reflect the quirks of indi­vid­ual cities and groups. Each of these seems to break the idea of “open­ness” in one way or another, but we should be pre­pared to do so. Open­ness in and of itself is not enough to hold together a worth­while coali­tion and it’s time to get over it.

Evgeny Morozov’s “To Save Everything, Click Here”

[Atten­tion con­ser­va­tion notice: 2700 words in which I largely agree with Evgeny Moro­zov, which reg­u­lar read­ers already know I do. This essay is based on an advance copy pro­vided by the pub­lisher. The book’s home page is here.]

Every­body loves Jane Jacobs.

I love Jane Jacobs. “Aus­trian” econ­o­mists with whom I dis­agree, like Alex Tabar­rok, love Jane Jacobs. You prob­a­bly love Jane Jacobs. Steven John­son says he loves Jane Jacobs in his recent book Future Per­fect  – but so does Evgeny Moro­zov at the begin­ning of To Save Every­thing, Click Here, and Moro­zov is argu­ing against John­son. Some­one has to be get­ting Jane Jacobs wrong. Much of this essay is an attempt to see why Moro­zov gets Jacobs right, while John­son and oth­ers are miss­ing some­thing important.

~ ~ ~

From 2005 to 2007, Evgeny Moro­zov tells us, he thought that dig­i­tal tech­nol­ogy might be a way to rid the world of auto­cratic regimes. His dis­il­lu­sion­ment was chan­nelled into his influ­en­tial first book, The Net Delu­sion, a full-on attack on “the sheer cal­lous­ness and utopi­anism” of the “Inter­net Free­dom” project (p 354).

This time around, Morozov’s tar­get is much broader, but still cen­tred in the world of dig­i­tal tech­nolo­gies, and par­tic­u­larly the Inter­net. He takes aim at the ide­olo­gies that have grown up around the Inter­net, and their many manifestations.

Chap­ter 7 is typ­i­cal of the book. Here is a col­lec­tion of peo­ple who record and track their every­day lives online, and then ana­lyze and quan­tify their exis­tence, from tooth­brush­ing to read­ing to fecal con­tents. These “data­sex­u­als” now have a social move­ment, of a sort, which they call the “Quan­ti­fied Self” move­ment. It would be easy to dis­miss the Quan­ti­fied Self­ers as harm­less eccentrics if they did not have a sig­nif­i­cant pres­ence among the opin­ion shapers and lead­ing lights of Sil­i­con Val­ley, and if the mind­set they embody was not clearly present, if in mod­er­ated form, in the wider dig­i­tal world, and if the assump­tions and goals were not ooz­ing out over the rest of us. From quan­ti­fy­ing one­self in a pri­vate con­text it is a short step to the pre­sen­ta­tion of self through these num­bers, and the use of them as a basis for opti­miza­tion and refine­ment. So Moro­zov cites Reid Hoff­man, founder of LinkedIn, who says that self track­ing is a way to “acknowl­edge that you have bugs, that there’s new devel­op­ment to do on your­self” (237) so that we can algo­rith­mi­cally mea­sure, tweak, and refine our­selves and our self-presentation to the world.

From here it is just one more short step to the buy­ing and sell­ing of our per­sonal data: to insur­ers in return for lower pre­mi­ums, to adver­tis­ers in return for bet­ter deals. Our per­sonal data becomes a new “asset class” and exec­u­tives respond by “try­ing to shift the focus [of debate] from purely pri­vacy to what we call prop­erty rights” (235). New social pres­sures emerge as the dig­i­tiz­ers fol­low their path of bits, algo­rithms and mar­kets (career coun­sel­lors now rou­tinely rec­om­mend that build­ing a strong pres­ence on LinkedIn is a route to a bet­ter job), and we can replace debates about pri­vacy with reas­sur­ances about per­sonal choice. “Pri­vacy is mostly an illu­sion, but you’ll have as much of it as you want to pay for” says Kevin Kelly (236). New com­pa­nies emerge to opti­mize our self-presentation on the web (reputation.com), new norms emerge as “If you’re going out with some­one, and they don’t have a Face­book pro­file, you should be sus­pi­cious” (Slate’s Farhad Man­joo, quoted on p. 239). Why would you not share your real-time blood alco­hol lev­els with your employer if you don’t have any­thing to hide? (240).

The impact of the dig­i­tal on our lives is such that, while the social con­se­quences of self-tracking seem immense, they are just one thread among many of the dig­i­tal rev­o­lu­tion. In sep­a­rate chap­ters, Moro­zov inves­ti­gates new devel­op­ments in polic­ing, arts and cul­ture, pol­i­tics, gov­ern­ment, social engi­neer­ing, civic life, health, the work­place, and the increas­ingly designed, archi­tected envi­ron­ments in which we live. There is no aspect of life that isn’t ready to be tweaked, nudged, hacked and fil­tered into opti­mal performance.

How to respond to such a flood of changes? One is tempted to define one­self by an atti­tude to dig­i­tal tech­nolo­gies them­selves: to be unequiv­o­cally pro– or anti-technology. But to reject or to accept tech­nol­ogy whole­sale has no future: whole­sale rejec­tion entails rejec­tion, not just of inte­grated cir­cuits, but of the peo­ple con­nected by them: shap­ing the use of tech­nol­ogy lies not in the realm of indi­vid­ual choice, but of social choice. Whole­sale accep­tance seems fatal­is­tic – aban­don­ing the pos­si­bil­ity of hav­ing any say in the forces shap­ing the soci­eties in which we live.

Moro­zov under­takes two projects, one suc­cess­fully and one less so. The first is to pro­vide a frame­work in which to think about the new inven­tions that are being sold to us, and the pat­terns of thought behind them. Moro­zov iden­ti­fies a twin-tracked ide­ol­ogy behind the inven­tions and inven­tive­ness of the dig­i­tal world. One track is “Internet-centrism” – the prac­tice of “tak­ing a model of how the Inter­net works and apply­ing it to other endeav­ours”. Writ­ers have imbued the Inter­net with “a way of work­ing”; it has a “grain” to which we must adapt; it has a cul­ture, a “way it is meant to be used”, and it comes with a mythol­ogy in which iTunes and Wikipedia become mod­els to think about the future of pol­i­tics, and Zynga is a model for civic engage­ment (15). The sec­ond track is “solu­tion­ism”: the recast­ing of social sit­u­a­tions as prob­lems with def­i­nite solu­tions; processes to be opti­mized (23).

Moro­zov does a fine job of artic­u­lat­ing Internet-centrism and solu­tion­ism as two facets of a sin­gle Sil­i­con Val­ley ide­ol­ogy, whose fol­low­ers include the Valley’s soft­ware indus­try lead­ers, ven­ture cap­i­tal­ists, con­fer­ences and “thought lead­ers”, as an evo­lu­tion of the “Cyber­selfish” ide­ol­ogy iden­ti­fied a decade ago by Paulina Bor­sook. The com­mon assump­tions, shared biases, and indi­vid­u­al­is­tic predil­ic­tions give a cohe­sive­ness and homo­gene­ity to the new ideas and inven­tions, actively con­struct­ing and shap­ing the dig­i­tal envi­ron­ment from which they claim to draw their inspi­ra­tion. The insis­tence on “dis­rupt­ing” our social and envi­ron­men­tal lives; the idea that the solu­tions inspired by and enabled by the Inter­net mark a clean break from his­tor­i­cal pat­terns, a never-before-seen oppor­tu­nity – these mean that the only lessons to learn from his­tory are those of pre­vi­ous tech­no­log­i­cal dis­rup­tions. The view of soci­ety as an institution-free net­work of autonomous indi­vid­u­als prac­tic­ing free exchange makes the social sci­ences, with the excep­tion of eco­nom­ics, irrel­e­vant. What’s left is engi­neer­ing, neu­ro­science, an under­stand­ing of incen­tives (in the nar­rowly util­i­tar­ian sense): just right for those whose intel­lec­tual pre­dis­po­si­tions are to algo­rithms, design, and data struc­tures. Moro­zov argues that these ortho­dox­ies have had “a cor­ro­sive effect on pub­lic dis­course and on reform projects” (16) and it’s dif­fi­cult to argue otherwise.

Morozov’s approach to unpick­ing the hid­den assump­tions of solu­tion­ism, and the unpalat­able con­se­quences of its appli­ca­tion, is impres­sive but less suc­cess­ful. In order to avoid a blan­ket technopes­simism he makes two moves. The first is to adopt a broadly social con­struc­tion­ist approach to the world of dig­i­tal tech­nolo­gies. The Inter­net does not shape us, it is shaped by the soci­ety in which it is grow­ing. He is with Ray­mond Williams, against Mar­shall McLuhan. His stance here is blunt: he refuses to see “the Inter­net” as an agent of change, for good or bad. “The Inter­net” is not a cause; it does not explain things, it is the thing that needs to be explained. Chap­ter 2 is titled The Inter­net Tells Us Noth­ing (Because It Doesn’t Actu­ally Exist).

The sec­ond, more sur­pris­ing move, is to adopt a cri­tique that was first described in a pejo­ra­tive sense by Albert Hirschmann. “In his influ­en­tial book The Rhetoric of Reac­tion, Hirschmann argued that all pro­gres­sive reforms usu­ally attract con­ser­v­a­tive crit­i­cisms that build on one of the fol­low­ing three themes: per­ver­sity (whereby the pro­posed inter­ven­tion only wors­ens the prob­lem at hand), futil­ity (whereby the inter­ven­tion yields no results what­so­ever), and jeop­ardy (whereby the inter­ven­tion threat­ens to under­mine some pre­vi­ous, hard-earned accom­plish­ment)” (6). Moro­zov does not see him­self as a con­ser­v­a­tive, but instead places him­self in the tra­di­tion of other thinkers who have stood against pro­grams of orga­nized effi­ciency; “Jane Jacobs attacks on the arro­gance of urban plan­ning, Michael Oakeshott’s rebel­lion against ratio­nal­ists in all walks of human exis­tence, Hans Jonas’s impa­tience with the cold com­fort of cyber­net­ics; and, more recently, James Scott’s con­cern with how states have forced what he calls ‘leg­i­bil­ity’ on their sub­jects” (7). The list is an inter­est­ing one because, as I men­tioned at the begin­ning, it fea­tures the same cast of char­ac­ters that the solu­tion­ists — those whom Moro­zov opposes so implaca­bly — rou­tinely invoke as their own inspirations.

The Hirschmann frame­work pro­vides Moro­zov with a recipe for how to think about the many solu­tion­ist ini­tia­tives he tack­les, and many of the pas­sages in the book have a sim­i­lar struc­ture. Let’s return to self-tracking for a moment. Morozov’s first line of cri­tique is Hirschmann’s “jeop­ardy”: he invokes the ‘tech­nos­truc­tural­ists’ to ask not just what indi­vid­ual choices self-tracking offers, but to ask how it changes the envi­ron­ment we inhabit. A deci­sion not to share becomes a tacit acknowl­edge­ment that you have some­thing to hide. The dan­ger is that “if you are well and well-off, self-monitoring will only make things bet­ter for you. If you are none of these things, the per­sonal prospec­tus could make your life much more dif­fi­cult, with higher insur­ance pre­mi­ums, fewer dis­counts, and lim­ited employ­ment prospects” (240). It erodes pri­vacy, the abil­ity to make a clean start, and erodes risk-taking behav­iour given the con­se­quences of fail­ure. A sec­ond line of cri­tique is to ask what, as our quan­tifi­able aspects become the focus of atten­tion, is miss­ing in the quan­ti­fied por­trait that emerges: what intan­gi­ble aspects of our­selves become invis­i­ble. Do these num­bers, he asks, miss mean­ing? Where do ethics and aes­thet­ics go to in a world of num­bers? Moro­zov sur­veys the centuries-old debates over the virtues and per­ils of quan­tifi­ca­tion. Here the cri­tique stum­bles, as Moro­zov rolls out thinker after thinker in a parade of rea­sons to doubt the ben­e­fits of quan­tifi­ca­tion. From Niet­zsche to Nuss­baum, from nutri­tion­ism (the quan­tifi­ca­tion of food) to water-metering and the evo­lu­tion of clothes-washing norms, to the ben­e­fits of fric­tion and dis­so­nance in our every­day lives, there is no doubt he cov­ers an impres­sive amount of ground, but the argu­ment is scat­ter­shot; dis­joint. The end result is an eru­dite and widely-sourced list of the ways in which tech­nolo­gies may lead to bad out­comes – but it is still a list, and it lacks the force of a strong cen­tral the­sis behind it.

The other chap­ters fol­low a sim­i­lar pat­tern: the per­ver­sity, futil­ity, and jeop­ardy of solu­tion­ist agen­das show a breadth of inves­ti­ga­tion that should shame many of his more pop­ulist oppo­nents, and pro­vide valu­able con­texts in which to think about tech­no­log­i­cal pro­grammes. In par­tic­u­lar, his insis­tence on seek­ing out his­tor­i­cal prece­dents for today’s argu­ments is a wel­come change from the lan­guage of “rup­ture” that many solu­tion­ists prefer.

If there is a uni­fied point of view behind the cri­tique, it can be traced back to the “anti-solutionists” with whom Moro­zov iden­ti­fies. Like Moro­zov and like Steven John­son, I’m a big admirer of Jane Jacobs’s Death and Life of Great Amer­i­can Cities, and James Scott’s See­ing Like a State: which makes me won­der how can they end up in such dif­fer­ent camps. The fault, you will not be sur­prised to hear, belongs with the solutionists.

One of the remark­able insights of com­puter sci­en­tists (and social sci­en­tists and nat­ural sci­en­tists in the com­puter age) is an under­stand­ing of how great com­plex­ity and diver­sity can be gen­er­ated by pop­u­la­tions of sim­ple agents fol­low­ing sim­ple rules. Just as schools of fish and flocks of star­lings cre­ate sweep­ing artis­tic dis­plays by pur­su­ing sim­ple indi­vid­ual rules, so the rich tapes­try of city life emerges from sim­ple every­day inter­ac­tions. The ideas of net­work the­o­rists lend them­selves to talk of self-organization, non-hierarchical struc­tures, and infor­ma­tional cas­cades. Com­puter sci­en­tists take ideas such as the “Game of Life”, the stun­ning images of frac­tal shapes, and the rich behav­iour of net­works to illus­trate how com­plex­ity arises from sim­plic­ity. From spin-glasses in mag­nets to the sort­ing and emer­gence of pat­terns revealed by Schelling and his intel­lec­tual descen­dants, sim­ple “micro­mo­tives” give rise to sur­pris­ing and intri­cate pat­terns of “mac­robe­hav­iour”. Such agent-based think­ing seems at first to mesh per­fectly with Jacobs’s closely observed stud­ies of city life. She famously focused her pierc­ing, ana­lyt­i­cal eye on the details of every day life in large cities, and used her obser­va­tions to chal­lenge and then tri­umph over the grand visions and arro­gance of top-down city plan­ners. It’s the bottom-up nature of her approach that inspires: the plan­ners are try­ing to impose pat­terns on pop­u­la­tions from above but they miss the rela­tion­ship between the large and the small. It is tempt­ing, then, to take the descrip­tions of Jacobs’s cities and encode them in algo­rithms: agent-based sim­u­la­tions of the effects of block size on pedes­trian traf­fic pat­terns seem almost man­dated, so obvi­ous a next step do they seem from Jacobs’s chap­ter on the topic.

Yet this step, I increas­ingly believe, is a mis­take. Solu­tion­ism is ulti­mately cen­tral plan­ning by another name. The arro­gance of the urban plan­ner reap­pears as the arro­gance of the agent-based mod­eller and the Inter­net entre­pre­neur: the plan is still mono­lithic, but now takes the shape of a net­work. As Steven John­son says, when his “peer pro­gres­sives” see a social prob­lem, they design a peer net­work to solve it. But what has hap­pened to the cit­i­zens in this net­work? They have been reduced to dumb fol­low­ers of sim­ple rules. The rich­ness and com­plex­ity – all the inter­est, in fact – lies in the struc­ture of the net­work. If the out­come isn’t what you want, well tweak the incen­tives, adjust the topol­ogy of the net­work, pro­vide an addi­tional option for the nodes (sorry, peo­ple) to choose from. For all its talk of bottom-up, decen­tral­ized think­ing, the Internet-centric solu­tion­ists end up with an impov­er­ished per­spec­tive of indi­vid­ual behaviour.

Just because com­plex and rich behav­iours can arise from sim­ple rules doesn’t mean that peo­ple are sim­ple beings. Any approach that applies both to mur­mu­ra­tions of star­lings or spin-glasses of mag­netic ions as well as to cities of humans is, almost by def­i­n­i­tion, miss­ing the dis­tinc­tive fea­tures of human soci­eties. Com­plex­ity can arise from sim­plic­ity at the small scale, but macro-level com­plex­ity also arises from micro-level com­plex­ity. The sub­tle and ill-understood nature of our own needs and inter­ac­tions will defeat the best efforts of solu­tion­ist plan­ning, just has it has defeated those of cen­tral plan­ning and of free markets.

In his final chap­ters, Moro­zov appeals to this par­tic­u­lar­ist view of the world, in which each node of a net­work is dif­fer­ent from oth­ers, and in which gen­eral solu­tions don’t exist. To dis­card the impor­tance of the details of our daily inter­ac­tions, as the solu­tion­ists inevitably do, is to inevitably pro­voke unex­pected responses, unin­ten­tional side effects, and unan­tic­i­pated break­downs of the solu­tion­ist schemes. When Brian Chesky of AirBnB com­plains that there are 30,000 dif­fer­ent cities in which he wants to oper­ate, and that it’s just not prac­ti­cal to nego­ti­ate with each one, he is not design­ing a bottom-up solu­tion, he is impos­ing a top-down net­work. He is demand­ing that cities become “leg­i­ble” in James Scott’s ter­mi­nol­ogy, to his over­ar­ch­ing (and sim­plis­tic) algorithms.

To reach for an alter­na­tive vision, Moro­zov looks to artists who have engaged in “adver­sar­ial design” to illus­trate the impor­tance of acknowl­edg­ing micro-level com­plex­ity. But to look to the arti­fi­cial­ity of the arts is second-best here; there is enough vari­a­tion and rich­ness of detail in the nor­mal every­day world to illus­trate the impor­tance of vari­a­tion and local knowl­edge and unan­tic­i­pated interactions.

But despite these minor com­plaints, “Click Here” is an admirable and sig­nif­i­cant achieve­ment. It iden­ti­fies and makes a valu­able and intel­lec­tu­ally adven­tur­ous assault on what is becom­ing an increas­ingly obvi­ous prob­lem: the appro­pri­a­tion of demo­c­ra­tic and “bottom-up” visions by those who seek to impose their own top-down net­works on the rest of us, and who reduce us to sim­plis­tic nodes in the process. This is a valu­able book: now if only some­one could make a TED Talk of it.

Writ­ten using Org ver­sion 7.6 with Emacs ver­sion 23.

Notes on Identity, Institutions, and Uprisings

Intro­duc­tion

Fin­ish­ing up what I said I’d fin­ish a cou­ple of months ago, this is a shorter ver­sion of a paper on “Iden­tity, Insti­tu­tions, and Upris­ings” with less math­e­mat­ics, no ref­er­ences (see the link above) and more opin­ion­at­ing. Also, a longer ver­sion of what I’m going to say at The­o­riz­ing the Web 2013 in a few days.

There is a the­o­ret­i­cal side to the “Face­book Rev­o­lu­tion” debate about the role of dig­i­tal tech­nolo­gies in the 2011 “Arab Spring” upris­ings, and it boils down to two ways of look­ing at things: the micro and the macro. On the one hand, we have the ratio­nal choice, agent-based approach and on the other we have more tra­di­tional soci­o­log­i­cal approaches based on larger-scale social structures.

If you look at some of the key char­ac­ter­is­tics of the upris­ings, it looks like a win for the micro side.

The­o­ries, and North African upris­ings.
Event Micro Macro
Sud­den upris­ing (cascade) Y N
Lack of strong oppo­si­tion movement Y N
Net­work technologies Y N
Score 3 0

The sin­gle most dra­matic thing about the “Arab Spring” upris­ings was their unex­pected sud­den­ness. They fit the “infor­ma­tion cas­cade” mod­els devel­oped by Timur Kuran, Suzanne Lohmann and oth­ers to describe the equally dra­matic and sud­den 1989 upris­ings in East­ern Europe. Noth­ing on the “macro” side matches the ele­gant expla­na­tion of sud­den, dis­con­tin­u­ous change given by the micro-theorists.

Related to this sud­den­ness is the lack of a strong oppo­si­tion move­ment before the upris­ing. It’s not that there was no oppo­si­tion, but there was noth­ing of the strength to indi­cate a com­ing cri­sis. The cas­cade the­o­ries have no need, or even place, for orga­ni­za­tions or move­ments: these are pop­u­la­tion dynam­ics mod­els, with no struc­ture big­ger than the net­worked indi­vid­ual. Mean­while, the lead­ing soci­o­log­i­cal the­o­ries deal with move­ments, orga­ni­za­tions, and resource mobi­liza­tion. Score two to the micro-theorists.

Finally, we have the role of dig­i­tal tech­nolo­gies, which segues nat­u­rally to net­work mod­els of soci­ety. Talk of infor­ma­tion tech­nolo­gies leads equally nat­u­rally to a focus on infor­ma­tion dif­fu­sion across net­works, in which increased con­nec­tiv­ity low­er­ing bar­ri­ers to col­lab­o­ra­tion, dis­cus­sion, and infor­ma­tion shar­ing. And the macro-theorists again seem to have lit­tle on their side to cope with these kinds of ideas.

It looks like a shut-out win for the micro-theorists; the lan­guage of net­works and infor­ma­tion replaces the lan­guage of social move­ments and reper­toires of per­for­mance, and with that comes the inevitable idea that with a new kind of the­ory we are we see­ing a new kind of upris­ing, in which self-organizing net­works based on dig­i­tal tech­nolo­gies take cen­tre stage…

But you will have real­ized by now that this is a setup for me to argue that there’s another way of look­ing at these events, so let’s get to it.

The key suc­cess of micro-level the­ory is the expla­na­tion of cas­cades, which is a nat­ural con­se­quence of any model that has mul­ti­ple equi­lib­ria. Just because of that suc­cess, we don’t need to go whole hog and take on board the ideas of information-driven and network-sustained change. I want to argue that we can take the con­cepts that soci­o­log­i­cal research has shown to be impor­tant, and move them into the realm of ratio­nal choice mod­els. And when we do, we not only get pop­u­la­tion dynam­ics and cas­cades, but we also get expla­na­tions for sev­eral other aspects of dis­sent and upris­ings that net­works and information-based the­o­ries can’t deliver.

Is there a down­side? Of course there is. Behind the scenes, it’s often the case that ratio­nal choice the­o­rists like long equa­tions while soci­ol­o­gists love long words. Ratio­nal choice the­o­rists see the soci­ol­o­gists’ con­cepts as fuzzy, while the soci­ol­o­gists see the incen­tives of ratio­nal choice mod­els as sim­plis­tic. What I have to offer demands both long equa­tions and long words, and is open to being crit­i­cism for being simul­ta­ne­ously sim­plis­tic and fuzzy. Ah well.

Face­book as a “free space”

Let’s start with a ques­tion. Zeynep Tufekci is a soci­ol­o­gist who was in Egypt right after the Jan­u­ary 2011 upris­ings, inter­view­ing par­tic­i­pants. Here’s what she says:

When I was in post-Mubarak Cairo, my hosts kept point­ing in amaze­ment to var­i­ous street cor­ners where fierce polit­i­cal dis­cus­sions were being held and often whis­pered, before remem­ber­ing they could now speak up and adjust­ing their voice, “You never saw this. Nobody ever dis­cussed pol­i­tics openly, ever.” Then they would pause and add, “Well, except online, of course. We all dis­cussed pol­i­tics online.”

So the ques­tion is that final sen­tence. Why is it that, prior to the rev­o­lu­tion, peo­ple could dis­cuss pol­i­tics online but not else­where? What made “online” a venue where those dis­cus­sions could take place? It’s not just ease of com­mu­ni­ca­tion, because if you want to com­mu­ni­cate you can stand on a busy street cor­ner – as peo­ple were doing when Tufekci visited.

The key thing is that com­mu­ni­ca­tion online was, for some rea­son, safe, while com­mu­ni­ca­tion on the street was not. It’s not just that com­mu­ni­ca­tion among like-minded peo­ple was pos­si­ble, but that the “online” spaces were a venue where such com­mu­ni­ca­tion did not have the same  con­se­quences. Some­how, the speech was hid­den from those in power. It was a trusted environment.

Now while the logic of net­works is a good way to explain easy com­mu­ni­ca­tion, it doesn’t lend itself to dis­cus­sions of trust. For­tu­nately soci­ol­o­gists have long been aware of the impor­tance of these “free spaces” in which dis­sent­ing voices can com­mu­ni­cate. Here are Francesca Pol­letta and James Jasper in a 2001 paper:

Con­cepts of “sub­merged net­works”, “halfway houses”, “free spaces”, “havens”, “sequestered social sites”, and “abeyance struc­tures” describe insti­tu­tions removed from the phys­i­cal and ide­o­log­i­cal con­trol of those in power, for exam­ple the black church before the civil rights move­ment and lit­er­ary cir­cles in com­mu­nist East­ern Europe. Such insti­tu­tions… rep­re­sent a “free space” in which peo­ple can develop coun­ter­hege­monic ideas and oppo­si­tional identities.

So these notions of “free spaces” have been around for some time and surely fit some­thing about the way that online polit­i­cal dis­cus­sion worked in Egypt. Free spaces are insti­tu­tions (in a broad sense of the term) that are not out­lawed, but which appeal to out­siders of soci­ety rather than to those who iden­tify with the powers-that-be. They man­age to be trans­par­ent to their mem­bers while being opaque to officialdom.

More gen­er­ally, fol­low­ing Charles Tilly and Sid­ney Tar­row, we can think of insti­tu­tions in  author­i­tar­ian states as being of three kinds.

Types of insti­tu­tion in author­i­tar­ian states
Insti­tu­tion High Sta­tus Low Sta­tus
Pre­scribed Y Y/N
Tol­er­ated N Y
For­bid­den N N
  • Pre­scribed insti­tu­tions are the main­stream and estab­lish­ment insti­tu­tions of soci­ety. They may include the edu­ca­tion sys­tem, orga­ni­za­tions like the army, and also things like national cel­e­bra­tions. Some of these insti­tu­tions include peo­ple of all lev­els of sta­tus, while some are restricted to high-status indi­vid­u­als and families.
  • Tol­er­ated insti­tu­tions are legal, but their mem­ber­ship is lim­ited to lower-status indi­vid­u­als. In some coun­tries these would include reli­gious insti­tu­tions asso­ci­ated with minor­ity groups, per­haps some artis­tic and cul­tural insti­tu­tions, and work­place orga­ni­za­tions in coun­tries where they can exist out­side offi­cial con­trol. These are the venues that, accord­ing to Pol­letta and Jasper, can pro­vide spaces for dis­sent. Obvi­ously there is a wide range of what insti­tu­tions are tol­er­ated and what are for­bid­den. North Korea has a lot fewer “tol­er­ated” insti­tu­tions than 1980 Poland.
  • For­bid­den insti­tu­tions are those that are not per­mit­ted in author­i­tar­ian soci­eties. Oppo­si­tion polit­i­cal par­ties, inde­pen­dent unions, that sort of thing.

But how do these insti­tu­tions become “removed from the phys­i­cal and ide­o­log­i­cal con­trol of those in power”? The answer lies in what Pol­letta & Jasper call “col­lec­tive iden­tity”. Tol­er­ated insti­tu­tions –whether sub­cul­tures, groups, or what­ever – build up their own prac­tices to estab­lish autonomy.

Col­lec­tive iden­tity is “an individual’s cog­ni­tive, moral, and emo­tional con­nec­tion with a broader com­mu­nity, cat­e­gory, prac­tice, or insti­tu­tion.” It gets expressed in “cul­tural materials—names, nar­ra­tives, sym­bols, ver­bal styles, rit­u­als, cloth­ing, and so on.” And these expres­sions pro­vide boundary-setting rit­u­als and insti­tu­tions that sep­a­rate chal­lengers from those in power, and so can strengthen inter­nal solidarity.

Exam­ples of “free spaces” in author­i­tar­ian soci­eties abound. In his book Exit-Voice Dynam­ics and the Col­lapse of East Ger­many, Steven Pfaff high­lights the impor­tance of some very nar­row insti­tu­tions that he calls “Niche soci­ety”. These are “pock­ets of pri­vate life, around home, car and allot­ment” where peo­ple could voice their dis­en­chant­ment and cyn­i­cism. A broader form of dis­sent took place in insti­tu­tions of youth cul­ture: despite party efforts to estab­lish bands and music venues for Ger­man youth, many sought out more alter­na­tive forms of music, and clashes took place  between fans and police at con­certs. Music events are not, at least pub­licly, polit­i­cal events and so while the events might not be for­bid­den, you would not find party sup­port­ers tak­ing part. Finally, Pfaff notes that “Dis­sent could only take place in gaps in the sys­tem of social con­trol that dis­si­dents could exploit. In the GDR this prin­ci­pally meant the churches.” Again, churches are an exam­ple of an insti­tu­tion that was legal, but which nat­u­rally sep­a­rated society’s out­siders from those in power.

Con­nect­ing Iden­tity to Ratio­nal Choice?

So now we seem to have two sep­a­rate sets of ideas. On the one hand we have a the­ory of upris­ings that makes no use of soci­o­log­i­cal con­cepts. On the other hand, to explain pre-uprising dis­sent we need to look at soci­o­log­i­cal ideas such as insti­tu­tions and iden­tity. Obvi­ously there is a bridge that must be built if we are to con­nect these seem­ingly sep­a­rate the­o­ret­i­cal islands. Can the gap be bridged? Well yes it can, thanks to the “iden­tity eco­nom­ics” work of George Akerlof and Rachel Kran­ton, who argue that iden­tity pro­vides a key moti­va­tion for many social sit­u­a­tions. They  take the con­cept of iden­tity seri­ously, and sim­plify it to fit it into a tractable micro-level model. Iden­tity, they say, has three parts to it.

  • First is a set of social cat­e­gories: for us, those cat­e­gories are “gov­ern­ment sup­porter” or “opponent”.
  • Next, each of these iden­ti­ties has a set of attrib­utes asso­ci­ated with it. These vary from soci­ety to soci­ety. Eco­nomic sta­tus is one, reli­gious or eth­nic or gen­der iden­ti­ties are others.
  • And finally, each iden­tity has a set of norms of behav­ior: in this case we sim­plify the options to “con­form” to society’s expec­ta­tions or “dissent”.

Indi­vid­u­als then have two choices to make. First, they need to adopt an iden­tity: Govern­ment or Oppo­si­tion? Next, if they are oppo­si­tional they need to decide whether to engage in active dis­sent or to con­form to offi­cial expec­ta­tions. If we arrange the pop­u­la­tion accord­ing to sta­tus, then those at the lower sta­tus choose O (O has a higher util­ity), and peo­ple with higher sta­tus choose G. Here is a graph that shows a case where the switchover appears at the mid-point.

b-utility

Util­ity and iden­tity in an author­i­tar­ian society

In some times and places, no one gives a hoot which iden­tity you adopt, while at other times and places it can be a mat­ter of life or death. I’ll call this scal­ing of the dif­fer­ence between O and G the iden­tity polar­iza­tion of soci­ety, and we’ll be need­ing this con­cept a lot.

Iden­tity is one of the two things we need to explain “free spaces” but before we go to the other, let’s take a short detour. One of the key suc­cesses of information-driven ratio­nal choice mod­els was the fact that they yield cas­cades. Can our identity-driven model also give cas­cades? Funny you should ask…

Iden­tity Cascades

Here is a cascade.

b-cascade

A cas­cade. The yel­low line and the yel­low dot are equi­lib­ria of the model.

If you want to know the gory details, includ­ing what the “hege­mony” label on the x axis means, you have to go and read the paper. But see that there are two equi­lib­ria here. One is a sta­ble author­i­tar­ian state, with zero activ­ity (the yel­low line at the right) and a high gov­ern­ment hege­mony. The other is a state in cri­sis, with a high level of dis­sent (the yel­low dot where the lines cross). And a small change in soci­ety can lead to a sud­den  dis­con­tin­u­ous switch from one to the other: a cas­cade.

To gen­er­ate mul­ti­ple equi­lib­ria you need some form of exter­nal­ity: some way in which one person’s actions influ­ence those around them. This model gen­er­ates cas­cades by assert­ing that active dis­sent increases the iden­tity polar­iza­tion of soci­ety: the more active dis­sent there is, the more it mat­ters which side you are on. It’s not so much an infor­ma­tion cas­cade as an iden­tity cas­cade.

Although this is a ratio­nal choice model, it does not invoke net­works, and infor­ma­tion is not cen­tral to the argu­ment. In most cas­cade mod­els the cas­cade is gen­er­ated by two things:

  • active dis­sent reveals infor­ma­tion, about the state of the soci­ety or about the beliefs of other peo­ple. This is the “pref­er­ence fal­si­fi­ca­tion” argument.
  • there is safety in num­bers: the more peo­ple protest­ing, the safer it is to protest.

I’ve crit­i­cized these ideas here, but is there any evi­dence to sug­gest that iden­tity does get polar­ized as a result of dis­sent? Anec­do­tally, there is. Here is a Marx­ist rad­i­cal speak­ing about Paris, 1968:

I was com­pletely sur­prised by 1968… I had an idea of the rev­o­lu­tion­ary process and it was noth­ing like this. I saw stu­dents build­ing bar­ri­cades, but these were peo­ple who knew noth­ing of rev­o­lu­tion. They were not even polit­i­cal. There was no organ­i­sa­tion, no planning.

In the lead-up to 1968, French stu­dents were not rev­o­lu­tion­ar­ies who had fal­si­fied their true pref­er­ences in order to con­form to society’s expec­ta­tions. What hap­pened was that dur­ing the riots, iden­tity (sta­tus quo or rad­i­cal?) became a cen­tral issue, and indi­vid­u­als had to decide “which side are you on?”, and many stu­dents switched their iden­ti­ties from mildly status-quo to enthu­si­as­tic barricade-builder.

A switch in iden­tity hap­pens when peo­ple are pulled along by those around them. As Den­nis Chong (1991) writes of the US Civil Rights move­ment: “friend­ship and famil­ial, reli­gious, and pro­fes­sional rela­tion­ships cre­ate an array of ongo­ing exchanges, oblig­a­tions and expec­ta­tions that individual.”

In his book on the fall of the GDR, Steven Pfaff repeat­edly invokes the “pref­er­ence fal­si­fi­ca­tion” model, but he often steps out­side it too. In fact, my biased read­ing of it is that he some­times resorts to the pref­er­ence fal­si­fi­ca­tion model because of a lack of alter­na­tives, not because the evi­dence pulls him that way. But when he writes that “By 1989 offi­cial social­ist ide­ol­ogy, along with its clear artic­u­la­tion of the nature of injus­tice, had become a threat to the sys­tem it was meant to legit­i­mate” he is talk­ing about a cri­sis of iden­tity. The cri­sis served to “focus dif­fuse griev­ances”, unit­ing “a host of dis­parate con­cerns into ‘moral anger“‘. This is the crys­tal­liza­tion of iden­ti­ties into the two polar choices: “Which side are you on?”

The “iden­tity cas­cade” model also makes a closer con­nec­tion between dynam­ics and the efforts of pro­test­ers. I’ll return to this later, but one of the things that pro­test­ers do in upris­ings is lay claim to the sym­bols of national iden­tity. Whether it’s Gandhi’s Salt March or GDR pro­test­ers choos­ing the 40th anniver­sary of the found­ing of the coun­try, strug­gles over the mean­ing of iden­tity become cen­tral at times of cri­sis. If infor­ma­tion rev­e­la­tion was all that were needed, there would be no role for the dis­plays of “wor­thi­ness, unity, num­bers and com­mit­ment” that char­ac­ter­ize polit­i­cal protest. An identity-driven approach makes this link clear, within a ratio­nal choice framework.

(Another nice thing is that within the iden­tity cas­cade model there is a nat­ural cat­e­go­riza­tion of the kind of events that can pre­cip­i­tate a cas­cade. A shock to the norms asso­ci­ated with oppo­si­tion, a change in socio-economic con­di­tions that places more peo­ple into the “out­sider” cat­e­gory, or a change in state pol­icy (per­e­stroika) all emerge as trig­gers for cas­cades. See the paper for more.)

Free Spaces and Screening

With that diver­sion over, let’s return to the topic of free spaces. How do we get from the lan­guage of Pol­letta and Jasper to the world of ratio­nal choice? There is a nat­ural cor­re­spon­dence in the con­cept of screen­ing: a mech­a­nism that imposes dif­fer­en­tial costs for two dif­fer­ent groups, so that (in a “sep­a­rat­ing” equi­lib­rium) one group finds it worth­while to pay the cost, while the other does not. Here, the identity-driven costs of being a mem­ber of “tol­er­ated” insti­tu­tion screens out those with the sta­tus quo (G) iden­tity.

Just as Akerlof and Kran­ton sim­pli­fied iden­tity so that it could be squeezed into a ratio­nal choice pic­ture, so we have to sim­plify the idea of an insti­tu­tion. Hence­forth, then, an insti­tu­tion I is char­ac­ter­ized by three things:

  • Sta­tus (x): This is the nat­ural mem­ber­ship of the insti­tu­tion. We can say that the iden­tity of the insti­tu­tion is the opti­mal iden­tity of an indi­vid­ual with sta­tus x
  • Breadth (δ): Indi­vid­u­als with sta­tus in [x — δ, x + δ] are mem­bers of I. The “niche soci­ety” insti­tu­tions of the GDR have a very nar­row breadth, while events such as national cel­e­bra­tions include all of society.
  • Mem­ber­ship dis­crim­i­na­tion (m): Some insti­tu­tions do not dis­crim­i­nate between the two iden­ti­ties, but some do. A dis­crim­i­nat­ing insti­tu­tion demands a cost of mem­ber­ship for indi­vid­u­als whose iden­tity dif­fers from the iden­tity of the institution.

With this idea, you can build a model in which there is a range of insti­tu­tions that even a strong state will not mon­i­tor, because the cost of mon­i­tor­ing is greater than the ben­e­fit in terms of dis­sent that is qui­eted. These insti­tu­tions pro­vide the free space for dis­sent to per­sist even under con­di­tions of strong government.

Here are some screen­ing institutions

b-screening-institutions

Screen­ing institutions.

The screen­ing insti­tu­tions are those inside the lozenge shapes. Along the x axis is the sta­tus, so all these insti­tu­tions are “tol­er­ated” in that they are entirely within the “out­sider” low-status zone. The broader the reach of the insti­tu­tion (that’s the “δ” in the graph) the less scope there is for these insti­tu­tions. Finally, and it’s beyond what I can explain in this part, there is a limit to the size of the “pub­lic sphere” that also lim­its the avail­able institutions.

So what this shows is that the eco­nomic con­cept of screen­ing brings to the identity-driven ratio­nal choice model the idea of free spaces, well estab­lished within the soci­o­log­i­cal lit­er­a­ture. To go back to the begin­ning of this essay, the exis­tence of such spaces is some­thing that the net­work mod­els, with their focus on costs of com­mu­ni­ca­tion, don’t seem well equipped to describe. So now we have a sin­gle the­ory that cov­ers both upris­ings and pre-revolutionary dis­sent, instead of two (one micro, one macro). We can now see that the “free spaces” of online dis­sent are sim­i­lar to, and exist for the same rea­sons as, other free spaces that have existed in the past. Even in Egypt, the role of the Ultras foot­ball fans can fit within this model, the foot­ball sta­dium ter­races pro­vid­ing a “tol­er­ated” insti­tu­tion within which dis­sent could be expressed. The model also argues that the key facet of online spaces is not their tech­no­log­i­cal nature, but the fact that they were adopted by, and asso­ci­ated with, the broadly anti-establishment demo­graphic of urban youth. Nav­i­gat­ing the dis­cus­sion spaces of the online world is easy if you have friends who are tak­ing part: not so easy if you are a gov­ern­ment offi­cial try­ing to pose as a dis­en­fran­chised youth. The tech­nol­ogy of social media is epiphe­nom­e­nal. In broad strokes, this is an argu­ment I made some time ago here: it’s only taken two years for me to work it out properly.

Insti­tu­tions and Challenges

The final case to look at is when a social move­ment chal­lenges a weak gov­ern­ment. The goal is to put the gov­ern­ment in a “dictator’s dilemma”. The idea that clamp­ing down on dis­sent has the pos­si­bil­ity of draw­ing atten­tion to it, and per­haps fan­ning the flames, is an old one. Here is a recent statement:

[S]ometimes repres­sion inspires more mobi­liza­tion; and some­times it effec­tively quashes move­ments or pushes them under­ground. Some­times repres­sive forces are suc­cess­ful in char­ac­ter­iz­ing pro­test­ers as legit­i­mate tar­gets of repres­sion, and other times they delig­itimize the State and increase the legit­i­macy of the social move­ments.
– Cristina Flesher Fom­i­naya and Les­ley Wood

Or, going back a lit­tle further:

Cen­sor­ship makes every banned text, bad or good, into an extra­or­di­nary text.
– Karl Marx

The con­trast­ing for­tunes of the GDR protests and the Tien­an­men Square protests in 1989 are the best known exam­ple of this dual possibility.

When they believe the time is right, social move­ments may actively seek to pro­voke a cri­sis (con­trary to the “safety in num­bers” cost min­i­miza­tion that the infor­ma­tion cas­cade the­o­rists tend to favour). Famously, here is Gandhi:

The func­tion of a civil resis­tance is to pro­voke response and we will con­tinue to pro­voke until they respond or change the law. – M. K. Gandhi

We can bring this idea of provo­ca­tion into a micro model if we bring in a uni­tary social move­ment and invoke an inter­de­pen­dency between iden­tity polar­iza­tion and gov­ern­ment coer­cion. Again, the math­e­mat­ics is in the paper.

The ques­tion we ask is “if you were an orga­nized oppo­si­tion, what insti­tu­tion would you tar­get, so that a clam­p­down would cause polar­iza­tion?” The idea is that clam­p­down on a main­stream insti­tu­tion would be more likely to polar­ize soci­ety, by dis­turb­ing even the government’s own sup­port­ers, than clamp­ing down on an “out­sider” insti­tu­tion. Again, the oppo­si­tion has to make a pay­ment to appro­pri­ate a main­stream insti­tu­tion, because of mem­ber­ship selec­tiv­ity. They have to pass with the iden­tity of a sta­tus quo sup­porter. They need to appeal to main­stream sen­si­bil­i­ties and to estab­lish legit­i­macy. Under the right cir­cum­stances, an oppo­si­tion will pay the cost of provo­ca­tion, because they antic­i­pate that a gov­ern­ment response will weaken, not strengthen, the government’s level of con­trol. Here is a fig­ure show­ing a set of insti­tu­tions that can be used by an oppo­si­tion to pro­voke a crisis.

Institutions that may provoke a crisis

Insti­tu­tions that may pro­voke a crisis

The insti­tu­tions that may pro­voke a cri­sis are those within the cen­tral closed shape, bounded clock­wise by light blue (on top), green, red, and pur­ple. Some of these insti­tu­tions are “tol­er­ated” insti­tu­tions to the left of the x* line, with oppo­si­tional iden­ti­ties; for these insti­tu­tions there is no mem­ber­ship cost to be paid by the oppo­si­tion. Oth­ers are “pre­scribed” insti­tu­tions that have a main­stream iden­tity. The oppo­si­tion must pay the price of appro­pri­at­ing these insti­tu­tions: par­tic­i­pat­ing in them in such a way as to pro­voke the government.

An exam­ple of this behav­iour comes again from the GDR upris­ings of 1989, as described by Steven Pfaff. The oppo­si­tion chose the cel­e­bra­tions of the GDR’s for­ti­eth anniver­sary – a main­stream insti­tu­tion – in which to pro­voke a response. The gov­ern­ment did respond, but “its bru­tal attacks on peace­ful pro­test­ers dur­ing the for­ti­eth anniver­sary … prob­a­bly acti­vated what might have oth­er­wise remained despair­ing, but inert, citizens.”

The oppo­si­tion made explicit attempts to por­tray them­selves as main­stream Ger­mans, adopt­ing the sim­ple slo­gan of “Wir sind das volk” (“We are the people”).

Wir sind das volk” [was] a thin claim, but an uncom­pli­cated “us ver­sus them” mes­sage, a claim to polit­i­cal iden­tity that could bridge lines of class, edu­ca­tion, neigh­bor­hood, and so on. – Steven Pfaff

In pre­vi­ous times, other upris­ings have explic­itly cho­sen main­stream or some­times tol­er­ated insti­tu­tions as a means of provo­ca­tion. Gandhi’s use of the Salt March, the Chi­nese stu­dents’ use of the death of Hu Yaobang and Tien­an­men Square, the Egypt­ian pro­test­ers appro­pri­a­tion of National Police Day and Tahrir Square all fol­low this pattern.

There are claims that dig­i­tal tech­nolo­gies at times of cri­sis can act in this man­ner. Ethan Zuck­er­man has pop­u­lar­ized the idea as a “Cute Cat” the­ory: that main­stream insti­tu­tions pro­vide a venue for dis­sent that can­not be shut down with­out polar­iz­ing soci­ety. The the­ory here pro­vides at best lim­ited and con­di­tional sup­port for the idea. Dig­i­tal tech­nolo­gies were not used as a mech­a­nism of provo­ca­tion, but played a sup­port­ing role. The “cute cat” idea has cre­dence only if the gov­ern­ment is not able to silence dis­sent in a more selec­tive man­ner than shut­ting down the entire inter­net or phone ser­vice within the country.

My favourite exam­ple is the French “Ban­quet Cam­paign” of 1848. Repub­li­cans were cam­paign­ing for uni­ver­sal male suf­frage against an intran­si­gent gov­ern­ment that had banned polit­i­cal meet­ings. Faced with the prob­lem of orga­niz­ing an oppo­si­tion in such an envi­ron­ment, they orga­nized ban­quets. On the 18th of July in Mâcon, Bur­gundy, five hun­dred tables were set up for three thou­sand guests with stands for three thou­sand more, osten­si­bly as a cel­e­bra­tion of local lit­er­ary star Alphonse de Lamar­tine. Lamar­tine was not just a lit­er­ary star though, he was also a well-known repub­li­can, and the author­i­ties knew that the ban­quet was a cover for polit­i­cal agi­ta­tion. But the author­i­ties judged that inter­fer­ing with the ban­quets would inflame the sit­u­a­tion rather than suc­ceed in sup­press­ing the protest, and so let the ban­quet pro­ceed. With the suc­cess of the Mâcon ban­quet, the “Cam­pagne des ban­quets” was launched, and ban­quets were held around the coun­try. This is the high wire act that gov­ern­ments and oppo­si­tion walk at times of cri­sis – when to push ahead, when to hold back, and what tac­tics may be effec­tive – and is the kind of dance that social move­ment stud­ies have helped to elu­ci­date. The cam­paign con­tin­ued until Feb­ru­ary of the next year, when the gov­ern­ment decided it had no choice but to esca­late. The ban­quets were out­lawed, a hastily orga­nized protest brought peo­ple into the streets of Paris on Feb­ru­ary 22, a con­fronta­tion between the Munic­i­pal Guard and the marchers spilled over into riots, every­thing got out of hand, and the King fled Paris. Within a few weeks gov­ern­ments were top­pled in Milan, Venice, Naples, Palermo, Vienna, Prague, Budapest, Krakow, and Berlin. I like to think that the graph above cap­tures a lit­tle of that drama.

Con­clu­sions

What I’ve tried to do here is fol­low the Akerlof & Kran­ton exam­ple of tak­ing the rich soci­o­log­i­cal con­cepts of iden­tity seri­ously, and used it to con­struct a ratio­nal choice model of upris­ings that com­ple­ments, rather than com­petes with, soci­o­log­i­cal mod­els. I’ve added some dynam­ics to the approach, and brought in a mod­el­ling of insti­tu­tions to build on the notion of col­lec­tive iden­tity as a moti­vat­ing force for protest.

The results are that the the­ory recov­ers the key facet of other ratio­nal choice mod­els of upris­ings, which is cas­cades, but with a dif­fer­ent inter­pre­ta­tion. Here it is “iden­tity cas­cades” rather than “infor­ma­tion cas­cades” that drive the sud­den change. Beyond cas­cades, the the­ory shows how screen­ing pro­vides a mech­a­nism for the exis­tence of “free space” insti­tu­tions in which dis­sent can be sus­tained, even in author­i­tar­ian regimes. Finally, it shows how an orga­nized oppo­si­tion may appro­pri­ate main­stream insti­tu­tions with the explicit intent of pro­vok­ing a cri­sis, putting the gov­ern­ment in a “dictator’s dilemma” in which nei­ther respond­ing nor fail­ing to respond is a good option.

(Writ­ten in Org ver­sion 7.9.3f with Emacs ver­sion 23)

Welcome to tomslee.net

I’ve moved my site here from whimsley.typepad.com. This site con­tains the com­plete blog (includ­ing com­ments) from the Type­pad site, but many of the links will take you back to the old place, which exists in archived state. There are RSS and email sub­scrip­tion but­tons up there on the right.

Update

A few updates after my “self-assessment” post.

First, I’ve received a dozen or so really help­ful and con­struc­tive emails from a num­ber of peo­ple. It’s been good for the ego, and it’s def­i­nitely given me encour­age­ment to keep at this for a while yet. Sin­cere thanks to those who wrote (I think I’ve got back to every­one, but for­give me if I missed one or two). Also, thanks to Henry and Brad for the free labour on their blogs.

Sec­ond: I’m in the mid­dle of  mov­ing the blog from here to a shiny new instal­la­tion at tomslee.net (which has been a stub of a site for a few years). I’ll post here when that’s done.

Third: in the days after that last post I received one invi­ta­tion to speak at a con­fer­ence, one accep­tance of a talk at a sec­ond, and an invi­ta­tion to write a multi-book review. Whin­ing in pub­lic seems like a good way to go.

Finally: for those look­ing for No One Makes You, the pub­lisher has this to say:

In the US: the book is avail­able new at B&N (though it dis­plays an old cover we assure you it is the cor­rect edi­tion). Or, you can con­tact our office directly (info (at) btlbooks.com or 1–800-718‑7201) and we’ll ship you a copy any­where within North America.

Pur­chasers in the UK and Europe can order new copies directly through our UK dis­trib­u­tor, Cen­tral Books (and sup­port an inde­pen­dent dis­trib­u­tor of books and magazines).

An ebook edi­tion is being worked on and should soon be avail­able. If you would like to be noti­fied when it is avail­able, please con­tact our office info (at) btlbooks.com or 1–800-718‑7201. Thanks for your inter­est in No One Makes You Shop at Wal-Mart.

I’ll post that some­where per­ma­nent once the site has moved. 

So 2013 look pretty good. Now I just need to actu­ally write something.

Self-Assessment 2013

Atten­tion con­ser­va­tion notice: self-involvement.

Update: Com­ments are closed because, in the light of morn­ing, this looked like fish­ing for com­pli­ments (with added whin­ing!) But no! It is merely an aide-resolution, to get myself mov­ing for­ward in 2013.

Back­ground

New Year. Time to take a real­is­tic look at the state of my writing. 

The goal of my writ­ing was to have an impact, how­ever small, on issues that mat­ter to me. I had been an activist in a num­ber of polit­i­cal, union, and social jus­tice orga­ni­za­tions, and writ­ing seemed to be a way to con­tinue to con­tribute that fit into a new stage of my life. I’ve been try­ing to write in my spare time for roughly 15 years now. When I started, my chil­dren were enter­ing school; now they are adults. 

The first half of that 15 years was spent writ­ing and studying/researching No One Makes You Shop at Wal-Mart. Whim­s­ley started off as an attempt to pro­mote the book, but soon moved into tech­nol­ogy & pol­i­tics, where it has stayed ever since.

The total cost of this writ­ing project to me and my fam­ily is now well into six fig­ures in fore­gone income: sev­eral years ago I “nego­ti­ated” a four-day work­ing week, largely to pur­sue this project. On the other hand, it has to coex­ist with a nearly-full-time job, which means that although much of what I write has a pseudo-academic bent, I doubt that I’m in a posi­tion to obtain qual­i­fi­ca­tions rel­e­vant to what I write about.

I hes­i­tate to post this, as it’s self-involved and not very cheery, but it may pro­vide some use­ful infor­ma­tion for other bloggers.

Assess­ment

Here are some met­rics for the seven years since No One Makes You Shop at Wal-Mart was pub­lished, most of which relate to my blogging:

  • Sales of “No One Makes You Shop at Wal-Mart”. Around 1,000 2,000. Most in the first year. (Thanks to Brad DeLong and Alex Tabar­rok for many of those)
  • Blog read­er­ship: Siteme­ter says about 100 hits a day, and I guess that about half of that is people/bots who don’t read. The traf­fic is about the same as it was in 2008.
  • Num­ber of invi­ta­tions to con­tribute to other pub­li­ca­tions: 3. (Thanks to Bron­wyn Drainie and Alas­tair Cheng)
  • Num­ber of invi­ta­tions to con­tribute to other sites: 3. (Thanks to Henry Farrell)
  • Num­ber of invi­ta­tions to con­fer­ences and work­shops: 2. (Thanks again, Henry)
  • Num­ber of pub­li­ca­tions to have quoted my work, to my knowl­edge: 1. (Thanks Evgeny Morozov)
  • Awards, prizes, or nom­i­na­tions for same: 0.

What can I say? That is not a pic­ture of suc­cess, and given the gen­er­ous sup­port I have received, the respon­si­bil­ity for remain­ing mis­takes clearly lies, as they say, with the author.

My major reward from blog­ging has been to dis­cover a small but select group of very smart peo­ple who have con­tin­ued to read this blog, pro­mote it from time to time, and engage in con­ver­sa­tion. Thanks to each of you.

The high­light of this year came out of a rant on the “Open Data move­ment”, writ­ten in a fit of pique one morn­ing and pub­li­cised by Evgeny Moro­zov on Twit­ter, which led to an oppor­tu­nity to post at Crooked Tim­ber on the topic. Sec­ond was con­tribut­ing to the Lit­er­ary Review of Canada again. But let’s be hon­est: writ­ing to have an impact at the age of 53 feels very dif­fer­ent from writ­ing at the age of 38, and the num­bers make it clear that it’s not work­ing. To rein­force that feel­ing, the traf­fic for an indi­vid­ual post at the blog depends hugely on whether some of a small num­ber of indi­vid­u­als link to it: I am still depen­dent, that is to say, on patron­age and on chance, and I have not man­aged to build an audi­ence of my own to sus­tain sig­nif­i­cant interest.

Diag­no­sis

I sus­pect my own fail­ings are the major cause for this poor per­for­mance. I write slowly and infre­quently, and usu­ally long pieces. Clearly the style and con­tent of my writ­ing has failed to build a sig­nif­i­cant audience.

A sec­ond rea­son is that, naive as this sounds (espe­cially in the light of what I write), I actu­ally thought that writ­ing stuff and putting it on the web would be enough to build a rep­u­ta­tion and an audi­ence. Clearly it isn’t, and that should not be sur­pris­ing. I have no cre­den­tials behind what I write, I’m ter­ri­ble at self-promotion, my net­works related to my writ­ing are min­i­mal, and although some pieces have been provoca­tive I am uncom­fort­able in the cul­ture of quick­fire debate that dri­ves much polit­i­cal writ­ing. None of those things is likely to change.

If any­thing, the effort has empha­sized to me the impor­tance of cre­den­tials. I know that I use them myself: com­ing across a new blog or a new book I look for what oth­ers have said about the writer. I don’t know why I wouldn’t expect oth­ers to do any­thing dif­fer­ent when decid­ing about me.

Prog­no­sis

Uncer­tain. I sus­pect that I will con­tinue here for a while yet, but some­thing has to change. For­tu­nately I will have quite a lot of time in 2013, so it’s not a bad time to try to change some­thing. I am look­ing at these possibilities.

  1. See what I can do with this paper to gain cre­den­tials. I am cir­cu­lat­ing it, but see com­ment on self-promotion above.
  2. Pull together a book based on what I’ve been doing here (likely work­ing title “Wik­i­bol­locks: The Bro­ken Promises of Open­ness”) but I sus­pect that it would be too dry for a pop­u­lar book (plus I can­not point to a big reader base when approach­ing pub­lish­ers), and that I’m under­cre­den­tialled to write an aca­d­e­mic book. If I were a pub­lisher I would not take me on.
  3. What’s that? Why yes, I am open to offers.

So, we’ll have to see.

Favourites

On the bright side, here are some pieces I still feel good about (31 of them). It’s good to have them still out there.

The Shar­ing Economy

Open Data

Open Gov­ern­ment

Open Source

Rep­u­ta­tion Systems

Pri­vacy and Data Aggregation

Dig­i­tal Tech­nolo­gies and the Arab Spring uprisings

Irri­tabilia

Book Reviews

There are quite a few, but these are my favourites

 

Peer-to-Peer Hucksterism: An Open Letter to Tim Wu

Dear Tim Wu,

Has some­thing hap­pened to your brain? Can your short arti­cle in the New York TimesApps to Reg­u­late Apps, be the prod­uct of the same grey mat­ter that pro­duced the excel­lent “Who Con­trols the Inter­net?” and the admirable “The Mas­ter Switch”? What’s going on? I hope it was a momen­tary lapse and I hope you will change your mind about this sloppy and poten­tially dam­ag­ing piece.

You were writ­ing, as you know, about AirBnB and Uber: two new “peer-to-peer” com­pa­nies build­ing big busi­nesses around apps that let you “book a car ride or rent someone’s apart­ment using your smart­phone or com­puter”, and appar­ently break­ing a few laws along the way. You write that “no one can deny that these apps are respond­ing to real demands and help­ing cities become eas­ier to live in and visit”, and you place them on the side of Progress, and the Future; in con­trast, the reac­tions of cities who have banned these apps “recall Ned Ludd’s response to the auto­mated loom”.

While you do acknowl­edge that there are com­plaints about the com­pa­nies, you decide that “many of the com­plaints are anec­do­tal”. But com­plaints are always anec­do­tal unless some­one tal­lies them, and tal­ly­ing them is, of course, one of the points of reg­u­la­tion: AirBnB and Uber are not tal­ly­ing them, that’s for sure. They may even try to sweep them under the rug in case it dam­ages their val­u­a­tion: exactly the kind of con­flict of inter­est that make reg­u­la­tions nec­es­sary in the first place.

But let’s step back a bit. I’m no Val­ley Vision­ary, so if I were set­ting up a busi­ness based on offer­ing unli­censed hos­pi­tal­ity or cab rides, I might ask myself a few ques­tions first. And I may ask myself: why is it that every town and city I’ve ever been to has licens­ing require­ments for peo­ple offer­ing taxi ser­vices or overnight accom­mo­da­tions? Is there a global taxi car­tel or a multi­na­tional bed-and-breakfast con­glom­er­ate enforc­ing its will on munic­i­pal­i­ties from Aberys­t­wyth to Yel­lowknife? And if there isn’t — and of course there isn’t, because taxi and B&B oper­a­tions are usu­ally local and small-scale oper­a­tions — I may ask myself: what’s behind all these rules?

And if I stopped for more than two min­utes before seek­ing seed fund­ing for my enter­prise, I may tell myself about prop­erty zon­ing, about landlord-tenant agree­ments, about the risks run by cus­tomers who step into a taxi or a hotel in a strange city, about lia­bil­ity in the event of acci­dents, about the impor­tance of equi­table access, about com­plaints inves­ti­ga­tion, about safety checks, and more. Not, of course, that licens­ing is unprob­lem­atic in all cities – far from it – but these would at least be things I would won­der before pro­claim­ing that those who stand in the way of my right to make a buck are sim­ply Lud­dites. And if I were to advo­cate chang­ing zon­ing reg­u­la­tions in cities through­out the world, and chang­ing taxi­cab licens­ing rules too, with all the expense that comes with those changes, I’d have put a lit­tle thought into it. Espe­cially because, as you say in your final sen­tence, “It is, in short, a time to think care­fully”. Unfor­tu­nately, all the evi­dence is that AirBnB and Uber have not stopped to think, so the idea that they should set the agenda for civic licens­ing dis­cus­sions, plac­ing new stresses on the already-stretched finances of munic­i­pal­i­ties around the world, despite dis­play­ing such solip­sis­tic lack of atten­tion, is pre­sump­tu­ous at least and offen­sive at worst.

Unfor­tu­nately your two sug­ges­tions – that cities should require the com­pa­nies to pro­vide appli­ca­tions which could be used by land­lords and co-op boards with a check on their ten­ants’ use of AirBnB, or that cities could “sim­ply” require Uber to dis­close infor­ma­tion about its prices and traf­fic – do not even scratch the sur­face of the issues that need to be sorted out before AirBnB or Uber can be taken seri­ously as forward-thinking, sus­tain­able part­ners in civic devel­op­ment. And I hope that, if you reflect, you’ll agree that the new peer-to-peer com­pa­nies are a blight on the land­scape of egal­i­tar­ian think­ing. Yes, accord­ing to CNN, CEO Brian Chesky “thinks of Airbnb as more than a com­pany – to him it is a move­ment. His site invites users to return to a time when hitch­hik­ing wasn’t dan­ger­ous – when it was just fine to share any­thing with strangers because no one was all that strange.” But Brian Chesky has not tried to start a move­ment, he’s started a com­pany: and he hasn’t actu­ally done any­thing much to make hitch­hik­ing less dan­ger­ous. He wants his cus­tomers to think of it as a move­ment while he owns the busi­ness. While they invoke the com­mu­ni­tar­ian tra­di­tions of the infor­mal econ­omy, these new peer-to-peer com­pa­nies are more likely to erode that econ­omy than enhance it.

We all know the infor­mal econ­omy. I used to hitch­hike to uni­ver­sity, my neigh­bours have yard sales, friends help each other move house. None of this activ­ity is reg­u­lated because it’s at most min­i­mally com­mer­cial. But there is a line, of course: if I started hav­ing a yard sale every week­end then my neigh­bours might think I’m stretch­ing a point and com­plain to the by-law peo­ple. If I rented my house to strangers week in and week out – for money — they might ask if I’m run­ning a room­ing house. And that’s assum­ing that the peo­ple rent­ing my house aren’t run­ning a brothel. So there is a trade-off here: infor­mal activ­ity for lit­tle or no money is OK. Com­mer­cial activ­ity plays by dif­fer­ent rules; a level of account­abil­ity is needed.

So now here comes AirBnB (to take one exam­ple), who want to keep the idea that it’s about the non­com­mer­cial and “shar­ing” infor­mal econ­omy, and scale it up. They talk about their hosts in a non-commercial sense: earn­ing “addi­tional income”, or “extra money” (link) — rolling out, I could not help but notice, the very phrases used years ago to jus­tify not giv­ing women’s jobs the same pro­tec­tions and ben­e­fits as men’s jobs. It’s not the real econ­omy, it’s just a bit of pocket money: we don’t need all those expen­sive rules and reg­u­la­tions. But they want to build a bil­lion dol­lar busi­ness on the back of it. And while eBay famously did this for knick-knacks, the nature of the activ­i­ties makes the two com­pa­nies com­pletely dif­fer­ent. There are infor­ma­tion asym­me­tries with seri­ous con­se­quences here. The model is that AirBnB take 10% of the book­ing fees and take 0% of the respon­si­bil­ity for what hap­pens when you book, or hire, a room. Now many exchanges do go well, partly because the early stages of an activ­ity like this do draw from a com­mu­nity of peo­ple who are com­mit­ted to the non-commercial side of the action, but the suc­cess attracts oth­ers, and for per­sonal safety in such cases (rare inci­dence but severe con­se­quences) rec­om­mender sys­tems are sim­ply not the right tool. It’s not like Wikipedia (or eBay or Yelp) because you can’t just Undo an apartment-trashing, and the fact that AirBnB had not thought about what hap­pens when an apart­ment is trashed shows, as Farhad Man­joo writes, that is sim­ply wasn’t think­ing. It didn’t care. And if Brian Chesky really thought about AirBnB as a move­ment, he’d care.

The ques­tions are height­ened by the con­trast between the community-friendly rhetoric of the com­pany and the appar­ent char­ac­ter of its founders. One has a reported his­tory as a spam-merchant (that and more from Ryan Tate), and the financ­ing has raised eth­i­cal ques­tions about the way in which early investors can take large amounts of money out of the busi­ness with­out dilut­ing their con­trol. The long and short of it is that the com­pany runs as a scheme to make large amounts of money for a small num­ber of peo­ple by appeal­ing to large num­bers of egalitarian-minded young peo­ple. Invest­ment (and pre­sum­ably board-level pres­ence) from Andreessen-Horowitz, Yuri Mil­ner, and now maybe Peter Thiel, all with well-known neo-liberal atti­tudes, makes this clear.

Your other com­pany, Uber Taxi, has a sim­i­lar litany of com­plaints: tak­ing a 50% cut of tip money (ille­gal in many places), and more. The “surge pric­ing” fol­low­ing Hur­ri­cane Sandy is a clear exam­ple of the eat-your-cake-and-have-it approach that char­ac­ter­izes these peer-to-peer busi­nesses: the com­pany adopts hard-nosed Eco­nom­ics 101 pric­ing mod­els (which we can argue about) while employ­ing a rhetoric of com­mu­nity and shar­ing. You can have at most one or the other, but not both. Unsur­pris­ingly it is run, as Seth Finkel­stein pointed out on my pre­vi­ous post, by an admirer of Ayn Rand.

The con­trast with real efforts to break down bar­ri­ers to access and to make more acces­si­ble, non-commercial travel a real­ity is dra­matic. None of the peer-to-peer com­pa­nies “start from an entrenched social prob­lem and work back­wards from there” as Cather­ine Bracy writes. For real inspi­rar­ion, look back to efforts like the Ram­blers Association’s 1932 mass tres­pass of Kinder Scout, the ser­vices pro­vided over the years by the Youth Hos­tel Asso­ci­a­tion and Hostelling Inter­na­tional, all char­ac­ter­ized by a broad base, by peo­ple who thought about what they were doing, and who had an actual com­mit­ment to their goals. And guess what? Remark­ably enough, none of these has bil­lion­aire ven­ture cap­i­tal­ists — or even the profit motive — behind them.

So, Tim. Back to the begin­ning. The Ran­dian, sim­plis­tic free-market thought­less­ness behind the wave of “peer-to-peer” com­pa­nies, and espe­cially those who are try­ing to uproot reg­u­la­tions that pro­tect con­sumers, is far from the wave of the future: it’s huck­ster­ism mas­querad­ing as progress, hubris as vision, cal­lous self­ish­ness as community-mindedness, and it’s a dis­as­ter wait­ing to hap­pen. I don’t think it’s some­thing you want to asso­ciate your­self with. Will you retract your sup­port for AirBnB and Uber?

yours,

Tom Slee

Writ­ten in Org ver­sion 7.8.10 with Emacs ver­sion 23

Wikibollocks Alert: Peer-to-peer sharing went big in 2012

Wik­i­bol­locks entry for today comes from Grist mag­a­zine, a “source of non­profit, inde­pen­dent green jour­nal­ism”, who just ran a piece on peer-to-peer shar­ing which includes sen­tences like this.

We’re choos­ing peer-to-peer because we want to do busi­ness dif­fer­ently. We actu­ally kind of want to pre­tend like we’re not doing busi­ness at all.

Some ques­tions for Grist.

  • Why do you think that you are on the same side as Uber (based in the SF Bay area, funded by Jeff Bezos, Gold­man Sachs, and a host of ven­ture cap­i­tal­ists), Side­car (based in the SF Bay area, funded by Google and other ven­ture cap­i­tal­ists), and Lyft (based in San Fran­cisco, in early-stage VC fund­ing) and AirBnB (based in San Fran­cisco, funded by Jeff Bezos, Andreessen Horowitz, Crunch Fund, Ash­ton Kutcher and other ven­ture capitalists)?
  • Does it not occur to you that when bil­lion­aires pro­mote “pre­tend­ing like we’re not doing busi­ness at all” then maybe there’s some­thing a bit dodgy going on?
  • When Jeff Bezos (per­sonal wealth $18.4B) and Marc Andreessen (per­sonal wealth, $600 mil­lion) are one one side and taxi dri­vers are on the other, what makes you think that Bezos and Andreessen are the pro­gres­sive side?

Look, Grist, I under­stand that words like “peer-to-peer” and “shar­ing” sound nice and egal­i­tar­ian, but in pieces like this you’re actively work­ing against the things you claim to stand for.

 

Sixty-Two Things Wrong with “Future Perfect”

We inter­rupt the posts on iden­tity and upris­ings to bring you this not-so-handy print-off-and-keep com­pan­ion for read­ers of Steven Johnson’s new book Future Per­fect: The Case for Progress in a Net­worked Age. From here on, the author is “SBJ” and the book is “FP”. Page num­bers are in parentheses.

  1. First, and the rea­son I am writ­ing this: Claim­ing that the “peer pro­gres­sive world­view” stands for decen­tral­iza­tion and egal­i­tar­i­an­ism. It will lead instead to an increas­ingly polar­ized world, with cen­tral­iza­tion of infor­ma­tion on an unprece­dented scale.
  2. Start­ing with a promise that it does not keep. In its open­ing pages, FP tells the story of air traf­fic to high­light the unap­pre­ci­ated, steady, incre­men­tal progress of liv­ing con­di­tions over the course of the 20th cen­tury, brought about by a com­bi­na­tion of pri­vate enter­prise and gov­ern­ment reg­u­la­tion, rightly high­light­ing the over­looked role of pub­lic sec­tor in improv­ing qual­ity of life. The author crit­i­cizes “pro­gres­sives” for being too “ambiva­lent about actual progress” (xxxiii), yet soon the boot will be on the other foot, and SBJ will cast aside this opti­mistic tale of progress. The pro­gres­sives that so dis­may him, of whom I am one, turn out to have a more pos­i­tive atti­tude to his­tory than the “peer pro­gres­sives” that the book celebrates.
  3. Hav­ing a short atten­tion span. Only a few pages fur­ther on, the switch takes place, unre­marked. SBJ writes of his peer pro­gres­sives that “In an age of great dis­il­lu­sion­ment with cur­rent insti­tu­tions, here was a group that could inspire us, in part because they had attached them­selves to a new kind of insti­tu­tion, more net­work than hier­ar­chy – more like the Inter­net itself than the older mod­els of Big Cap­i­tal or Big Gov­ern­ment” (xxxvii). The insti­tu­tions that he was prais­ing just a few short pages ago are now car­i­ca­tured with Big Cap­i­tal Let­ters, labelled as relics of old-style think­ing (see also p 51). SBJ now adopts the very dis­il­lu­sion­ment that so upset him, turns away from incre­men­tal progress, and never looks back, tak­ing on the more roman­tic man­tle of the rev­o­lu­tion­ary. The truth in his intro­duc­tory pages, that the value of incre­men­tal progress will inevitably be over­looked, is iron­i­cally confirmed.
  4. Dis­miss­ing the work of aid work­ers. As if to rub our noses in his rejec­tion of incre­men­tal­ism, SBJ tells a story about for­eign aid work­ers Jerry and Monique Sternin, and their work in Viet­nam. He praises these pro­tag­o­nists because they “did not descend on those com­mu­ni­ties with the usual impe­ri­ous style of many for­eign aid groups” (p 21). And in that impe­ri­ous style, the work of char­i­ties around the world is dis­missed. There is not a sen­tence, here or else­where, about the ded­i­cated indi­vid­u­als who do not fit his mes­sage that every­thing must be changed. There are no grey areas here, and no need to think twice about this blan­ket, qualifier-free con­dem­na­tion. Cur­mud­geon I may be, unready to adopt the self-proclaimed opti­mism of the author, but my cyn­i­cism seems to me shal­low com­pared to the cav­a­lier atti­tude of FP. A list of “things wrong” may seem neg­a­tive, but it at least reflects an engage­ment with the sub­ject, a con­sid­er­a­tion of the author’s point of view. “Usual impe­ri­ous style” indeed.
  5. Iden­ti­fy­ing peer net­works incon­sis­tently, wher­ever it suits him, lead­ing to a morass of con­fu­sion. Many struc­tures con­tain dif­fer­ent ele­ments, hier­ar­chi­cal, com­pet­i­tive, and col­lab­o­ra­tive, and SBJ sim­ply high­lights the aspect that fits his mes­sage. He likes the Stern­ins’ work, so he says they build on the “peer net­works of rural Viet­nam”. Peer pro­gres­sives, the author tells us, “gen­uinely like free mar­kets”, except when they yield “power con­cen­trated in a hand­ful of eco­nomic oli­garchs” (p 29), but then again when the eco­nomic oli­garchs live in Sil­i­con Val­ley, we will see that things are dif­fer­ent again.
  6. Mak­ing a brief ref­er­ence to trad­ing towns of the early Renais­sance as “adher[ing] to peer-network prin­ci­ples in much of their social orga­ni­za­tion” (p 27) is far from enough to claim that these towns are “the birth­place of mod­ern cap­i­tal­ism” (28), and to place the whole of mod­ern indus­try on the net­work side of the leger. A flimsy state­ment, unsup­ported by evi­dence or argu­ment, and not to be taken seriously.
  7. And what a mis­use of his­tory through­out! The book treats the rich and diverse his­tory of orga­ni­za­tional struc­tures as a source of a few nuggets, cho­sen to illus­trate a pre-defined agenda.
  8. Speak­ing of which: no bib­li­og­ra­phy, a mere seven pages of notes, and seven pages of index.
  9. Only TED, that admirer of bite-size chunks of infor­ma­tion, could refer to this short book as a tome. It is slim: 250 pages of generously-sized and widely-spaced text.
  10. Car­i­ca­tur­ing the cul­tural indus­try in order to bury it. There are eight pages on the nov­elty and poten­tial of Kick­starter, the fundrais­ing site for cre­ative activ­i­ties. The main story is of Jacob Krup­nick, a film maker who raised $24,817 on Kick­starter to make a 71-minute dance music video, with almost half of the 600 dona­tions being less than $30. We are told that “His­tor­i­cally, Jacob Krup­nick would have been forced to choose among three paths… go main­stream, find a wealthy bene­fac­tor, or turn his cre­ative vision into a part-time hobby” (35). I have taken to paus­ing after every bold, broad-brush asser­tion like this to think of a story that would tell the oppo­site mes­sage. In this case I think of Glasgow’s Bill Forsyth, who in 1980 raised £2,000 for his first film, “That Sink­ing Feel­ing” by pos­ing as a con­cerned youth worker. He sent his beg­ging let­ter to local book­ies, brew­ers, dis­tillers, and oth­ers. A local trade union sent £2, both William Hill and Marks & Spencers sent £25, and a bis­cuit com­pany sent a few pounds too. Forsyth, of course, went on to make Gregory’s Girl and Local Hero.
  11. Ignor­ing the role of money. When I hear some­one tell me that it’s not about the money I reach for my wal­let. “What is ulti­mately impor­tant about Kick­starter is not whether it is a for-profit com­pany or a crea­ture of the gift econ­omy or some inter­est­ing hybrid – what is impor­tant is the social archi­tec­ture of the ser­vice” (47). Kickstarter’s require­ment of deliv­er­ing money to its own­ers and/or share­hold­ers will shape the direc­tion it takes.
  12. Iden­ti­fy­ing fundrais­ing over the air­waves (by Amer­i­can National Pub­lic Radio for exam­ple) as a cen­tral­ized “Legrand Star”, while claim­ing fundrais­ing on Kick­starter is a peer net­work (39). After all, each project rais­ing funds on Kick­starter is its own “Legrand Star”. Mean­while, the cen­tral­ized 311 sys­tem is por­trayed as a net­work. See 4, above.
  13. Giv­ing the Inter­net too much credit for the Arab Spring upris­ings. “To date, the most promi­nent exam­ples of net­work archi­tec­tures influ­enc­ing real-world change have been the decen­tral­ized protest move­ments that have emerged over the past few years: MoveOn, Arab Spring, the Span­ish Rev­o­lu­tion, Occupy Wall Street… .” (48 – 49)
  14. Arab Spring” is not and never was a move­ment (48).
  15. The Span­ish Rev­o­lu­tion? There wasn’t one. (48)
  16. Claim­ing that [the] Arab Spring is “some­thing of a dis­trac­tion” and not “con­crete and prac­ti­cal”. “The grand spec­ta­cles of Occupy or Arab Spring have turned out to be some­thing of a dis­trac­tion, avert­ing our eyes from the more con­crete and prac­ti­cal suc­cesses of peer net­works.” (49)
  17. But every mate­r­ial advance in human his­tory – from the Great Wall to the Hoover Dam to the polio vac­cine to the iPad – was ulti­mately the by-product of infor­ma­tion trans­fer and deci­sion mak­ing. This is how progress hap­pens: some prob­lem or unmet need is iden­ti­fied, imag­i­na­tive new solu­tions are pro­posed, and even­tu­ally soci­ety decides to imple­ment one (or more) of those solu­tions.” Here is the play with­out Ham­let. What dark tragedies are glossed over in “soci­ety decides”. This is a blood­less, tech­no­cratic view of mate­r­ial progress, reflect­ing the sim­i­larly blood­less path he charts to the future, in which prob­lems are solved, but strug­gles never fought. (49)
  18. Believ­ing in a magic bul­let. “When a need arises in soci­ety that goes unmet, our first impulse should be to build a peer net­work to solve that prob­lem”. (50)
  19. Believ­ing that he is beyond all that old Left/Right stuff. (51)
  20. Claim­ing the peer net­work “is not some rar­efied the­ory, dreamed up on a com­mune some­where, or in a grad school sem­i­nar on rad­i­cal thought” (52). Not only anti-intellectual, he is also dis­mis­sive of other alter­na­tive cultures.
  21. Pre­sent­ing New York’s “311 ser­vice”, a munic­i­pal non-emergency incident-reporting sys­tem, as a peer net­work; it is the cen­tral­iza­tion of a pre­vi­ously dis­parate set of ser­vices, a Legrand Star of infor­ma­tion col­lec­tion using stan­dard big-enterprise Customer-Relationship Man­age­ment soft­ware from Ora­cle (55 – 58).
  22. Spend­ing sev­eral pages telling us how the 311 phone ser­vice for prob­lem report­ing allowed the gov­ern­ment of New York to track the peri­odic maple syrup smell to a flavour com­pound man­u­fac­turer pro­cess­ing fenu­greek seeds. What is the point? The iden­ti­fi­ca­tion of one smell is so non-earth-shattering as to be sleep-inducing.
  23. How many times will we be told about the rev­o­lu­tion­ary poten­tial of report­ing the loca­tion of pot­holes using a smart­phone app? (57) Has there ever been any evi­dence that pothole-location-ignorance is a prob­lem to be solved, never mind the lim­it­ing fac­tor on local government’s abil­ity to keep our streets in good con­di­tion? If so, why have none of these accounts pro­duced it?
  24. Being blind to the pri­vacy con­cerns of New York Taxi dri­vers. He speaks of installing “GPS devices that com­mu­ni­cate vast amounts of infor­ma­tion back to the Taxi and Lim­ou­sine Com­mis­sion” in taxis (65) as if it puts the taxi dri­vers as peers in a peer net­work. But it doesn’t. It’s a cen­tral­iz­ing, hier­ar­chi­cal, over­see­ing move. The fact that SBJ does not see this is an indi­ca­tion of his will­ing­ness to see what he wants to see. This is the “peer pro­gres­sive” world? (63) Count me out.
  25. Under­es­ti­mat­ing the role of actual peer net­works. When friends of the authors wanted to ren­o­vate their base­ment, they found out about major road­works in the area just in time, from neigh­bours (67). “Yet despite its urgency, the news had arrived on their doorstep via the word-of-mouth net­work of two neigh­bours gos­sip­ing together”. (68) SBJ sees this as a fail­ing of tra­di­tional news dis­tri­b­u­tion, call­ing for a new peer-network struc­ture, but he should see as evi­dence of the strength of exist­ing networks.
  26. Not trust­ing unde­signed sys­tems. Neigh­bour­hood net­works do not have a pur­pose, while the “peer net­works” that SBJ pro­motes are single-purpose problem-solving ini­tia­tives (see 16, above). Power in designed net­works resides with the net­work owner; power in infor­mal net­works is dis­persed. By neglect­ing neigh­bour­hoods (despite his claim to be writ­ing in the spirit of Jane Jacobs) he is miss­ing the com­plex­ity and rich­ness of real-world networks.
  27. Mis­un­der­stand­ing the role of news in his “pot­hole para­dox”. What he sees as neigh­bour­hood news (76 – 77) does not need a purpose-built insti­tu­tion to deliver it, it needs strong com­mu­ni­ties. Blam­ing “tra­di­tional jour­nal­is­tic insti­tu­tions” for hav­ing a poor track record of meet­ing this need is like blam­ing restau­rants for not meet­ing the need for fam­ily break­fasts, mis­tak­ing a com­mer­cial need for a com­mu­nity need.
  28. Focus­ing on the sup­ply side, ignor­ing the demand side. Sur­vey­ing the shape of the media, FP gives a famil­iar descrip­tion of the vari­ety and pro­lif­er­a­tion of online con­tent. “There is going to be more con­tent, not less; more infor­ma­tion, more analy­sis, more pre­ci­sion, a wider range of niches cov­ered.” (90) But what voices will be heard, and what opin­ions ampli­fied? Here, he is silent. He claims that the news sys­tem is tran­si­tion­ing “from a small set of hier­ar­chi­cal orga­ni­za­tions to a dis­trib­uted net­work of smaller and more diverse enti­ties” (79): I hoped to see him take on some of the seri­ous cri­tiques of this claim, notably Matthew Hindman’s exten­sively researched “Myth of Dig­i­tal Democ­racy”, but there is no men­tion: all we get are sto­ries of Mac­world and online tech­nol­ogy blogging.
  29. So many sto­ries. Sto­ries should be sup­ple­ments to argu­ment, not the sub­stance of it.
  30. Quot­ing “The future is here, it’s just not evenly dis­trib­uted yet.” It was a clever phrase when William Gib­son coined it, but now it is well past its expiry date: it has become a lazy way to brush aside ques­tion­ing voices. (85)
  31. Ignor­ing incon­ve­nient excep­tions in the his­tory of the media. Every week­day through­out my child­hood, my par­ents had The Guardian deliv­ered to the door. Owned and run for many years by a non-profit orga­ni­za­tion (The Scott Trust), it was set up in 1821 by a group of non-conformist Man­cu­ni­ans. For many years after mov­ing to Canada I got the country’s largest cir­cu­la­tion daily, The Toronto Star, owned by a char­i­ta­ble orga­ni­za­tion (the Atkin­son Foun­da­tion). And these are only two I know of — I am far from a media expert. But in FP we read that “For more than a cen­tury, seri­ous jour­nal­ism has been finan­cially sup­ported by the mas­sive prof­its news­pa­pers accu­mu­lated, thanks in large part to the near monop­oly they had on local adver­tis­ing.” (91) [Most major news­pa­pers, my under­stand­ing is, have always run at a bit of a loss, this being the price that their own­ers pay to have their say in national debates. But I may be wrong.]
  32. Treat­ing intru­sive, data-mined adver­tis­ing as a pos­i­tive, pro­duc­tive sys­tem, while for­eign aid is a prob­lem to be fixed (see 3, above), and edu­ca­tion is too (see below). Now, a checkin at a lec­ture on Foursquare goes out to friends, “alerts local busi­nesses who can offer your pro­mo­tions through Foursquare; the link to the talk helps Google build its index of the Web, which then attracts adver­tis­ers inter­ested in your loca­tion or the topic of jour­nal­ism itself…. you are help­ing your friends fig­ure out what to do tonight, you’re help­ing [the host] pro­mote its event; you’re help­ing a nearby bar attract more cus­tomers; you’re help­ing Google orga­nize the web… new forms of value are cre­ated, and the over­all pro­duc­tiv­ity of the sys­tem increases.” (94) The assump­tion of a con­flu­ence of inter­ests among adver­tis­ers and indi­vid­u­als; the idea that we need to increase the “pro­duc­tiv­ity of the sys­tem”, what­ever that means in this con­text: these are dystopian visions.
  33. Claim­ing that ProP­ub­lica licenses its con­tent “so that who­ever wants to pub­lish its arti­cles may do so” (94) does not fit with ProPublica’s own state­ment that “Many of our ‘deep dive’ sto­ries are offered exclu­sively to a tra­di­tional news orga­ni­za­tion, free of charge, for pub­li­ca­tion or broad­cast. We pub­lished more than 110 such sto­ries in 2011 with more than 25 dif­fer­ent partners.”
  34. Hav­ing ignored the his­tory of non-profit news pub­lish­ing (see above, and BBC any­one?) SBJ empha­sizes the non-profit nature of ProP­ub­lica, draw­ing atten­tion to the nov­elty of the model (95). But FP fails to tell us how ProP­ub­lica works. [It is funded by the San­dler Foun­da­tion, and it is chaired by Her­bert San­dler, a sav­ings and loan CEO who sold his bank to Wachovia Bank for $24 bil­lion in 2004. The San­dlers got $2.4 bil­lion and put $1.3 bil­lion into the San­dler Foun­da­tion. Not so dif­fer­ent from the Atkin­son Foun­da­tion and the Scott Trust.]
  35. Con­fus­ing the abil­ity to put a page on the web with reach­ing a mass mar­ket. “Every niche per­spec­tive – from the extremes of neo-Nazi hate groups to their polar oppo­sites on the far Left – now has a pub­lish­ing plat­form, and a global audi­ence, that far exceeds any­thing they could have achieved in the age of mass media.” (99 – 100). I can think of one or two unsavoury groups in 1930s Europe who seemed to reach a fairly big – one might even say global – audience.
  36. In fact, through­out the whole book there is a silly and dis­torted com­par­i­son of “the Inter­net” (now) with “mass cul­ture” (past), sweep­ing to one side all the alter­na­tive cul­ture that has some­how per­sisted over the years. It’s a stacked deck.
  37. Treat­ing acad­e­mia as it treates his­tory, as a source for cherry-picking sto­ries that sup­port an exist­ing view­point. In this case, the work of two aca­d­e­mics who ques­tioned the “fil­ter bub­ble” effect (102). It’s the only aca­d­e­mic study quoted in the book, so far as I can remember.
  38. Quot­ing David Brooks on any­thing. (103)
  39. Ignor­ing the his­tory of “lead­er­less” protest. SBJ writes of the Seat­tle protests of 1999 that “it’s almost impos­si­ble to think of another polit­i­cal move­ment that gen­er­ated as much pub­lic atten­tion with­out pro­duc­ing a gen­uine leader” (106), and I think back to my own polit­i­cal coming-of-age: who were the lead­ers of the anti-apartheid move­ment, of Rock Against Racism, of the cam­paign for abor­tion rights? Who led the North Amer­i­can resis­tance to the US wars in Cen­tral Amer­ica, or the poll tax protests in the UK? I see no evi­dence that the protest move­ments of today are more lead­er­less than those of 30 years ago. And I am con­fi­dent that it’s only my igno­rance which pre­cludes me from giv­ing ear­lier examples.
  40. In 2001, the Amer­i­can state had not “opti­mized its mil­i­tary to do bat­tle with other states” (110). As early as the 1980s, the focus on “Low Inten­sity War­fare” was well doc­u­mented, in sup­port of mil­i­tary adven­tures in Cen­tral Amer­ica, and coun­terin­sur­gency in the Pacific. [Also, of course, to fund the “Afghan resis­tance” to the Rus­sians. That turned out well.]
  41. Twit­ter was not respon­si­ble for “spawn­ing pro-democratic flash­mobs in the streets of Cairo”. (111)
  42. It is true that the whole sec­tion on the Internet’s “capac­ity for shape-shifting” (118) and its affor­dances, or lack of them, is inof­fen­sive. But it has no strong mes­sage either.
  43. The Inter­net makes com­mu­ni­ca­tion cheaper, but it wrong to say it “democ­ra­tizes the con­trol of infor­ma­tion”. (121)
  44. There is no con­test­ing the tremen­dous, orders-of-magnitude increase in the num­bers of peo­ple cre­at­ing and shar­ing, thanks to the mass adop­tion of the Inter­net”. (121) There is some con­test­ing it. The verbs “cre­at­ing and shar­ing” cover many count­ing odd­i­ties: tweet­ing dur­ing a TV show counts, but talk­ing to your fam­ily dur­ing a TV show does not count. There is and has always been a wealth of “cre­at­ing and shar­ing” to which books such as FP are com­pletely blind.
  45. Prizes and tour­na­ments are gen­er­ally not peer net­works. Prizes are a use­ful mech­a­nism to tackle some prob­lems, but again he ropes them into his peer net­work pic­ture by see­ing net­works where he wants to see them.
  46. Car­i­ca­tur­ing “old-style” left­ists. The polit­i­cal right and left are char­ac­ter­ized as “the mir­rored alter­na­tives of Big Cap­i­tal­ism and Big Gov­ern­ment” (139): so much for the co-operative move­ment and many other autonomous move­ments on the polit­i­cal left.
  47. When John Har­ri­son won the lon­gi­tude prize he was not “at the edge of the net­work”. (142) The par­tic­i­pants in a prize com­pe­ti­tion are not a “peer net­work”. Uless by “net­work” you mean “a lot of people”.
  48. The spon­sors of prizes have some­times been net­works, as in his tale of the Royal Soci­ety for the Arts, but often are not.
  49. The X Prize Foun­da­tion (147) is indeed a peer net­work. Of bil­lion­aires. The resur­gence of prizes is not a mark of a new egal­i­tar­i­an­ism, it is the mark of a new patron­age cul­ture born of huge inequality.
  50. Being unwill­ing to reach out beyond his imme­di­ate cir­cle of com­fort­able thinkers cre­ates a fil­ter bub­ble of his own. For exam­ple, on the topic of gov­ern­ment cor­rup­tion, his sole source is Lawrence Lessig (157).
  51. Offer­ing fixes to the prob­lems of democ­racy through vote del­e­ga­tion (proxy votes), but com­pletely miss­ing the fun­da­men­tal role of the secret bal­lot. “proxy votes could be bought, of course. A phony pub­lic school expert could walk through a neigh­bour­hood hand­ing out twenty-dollar bills to any­one will­ing to pledge his school super­in­ten­dent vote to her. But this is true of any democ­racy.” (171) It is sim­ply not true in a democ­racy with a secret bal­lot, because no one can ver­ify how an individual’s vote was cast, but proxy votes involve an actual vis­i­ble and track­able trans­fer of a vote (vote sell­ing), which is com­pletely dif­fer­ent. The prob­lem of vote sell­ing, so far as I can tell, is a fatal one for the tech­no­cratic schemes in this chapter.
  52. Pre­sent­ing Whole Foods Mar­kets as a model of the new decen­tral­ized, flat­tened orga­ni­za­tion, while ignor­ing its anti-union, lib­er­tar­ian roots. Auton­omy is OK, just so long as it is our autonomy.
  53. Flat­tened hier­ar­chies (179) do not nec­es­sar­ily trans­late into more empow­ered employ­ees or decen­tral­ized orga­ni­za­tions. Instead, they can do the oppo­site, and “broaden the span of con­trol for the CEO”.
  54. Tak­ing pains to dis­tin­guish “peer pro­gres­sives” from “lib­er­tar­i­ans” on the eco­nomic right, but not men­tion­ing that the chap­ter on “Con­scious Cap­i­tal­ism” takes its name from an orga­ni­za­tion co-founded by John Mackey, CEO of Whole Food Mar­kets and a com­mit­ted Ran­dian lib­er­tar­ian.
  55. Attribut­ing the suc­cess of Sil­i­con Val­ley to “the unique social chem­istry of the Bay Area, with its strange cock­tail of engi­neer­ing geeks, world-class uni­ver­si­ties, and coun­ter­cul­tural exper­i­men­ta­tion. But the orga­ni­za­tional struc­ture of most Sil­i­con Val­ley firms also deserves a great deal of credit” (185). The idea that Sil­i­con Val­ley firms are more “egal­i­tar­ian oper­a­tions” (185) than oth­ers is daydreaming.
  56. A fun­da­men­tal rule of any seri­ous think­ing is not to take peo­ple at their own val­u­a­tion, but SBJ breaks this rule repeat­edly. He takes his descrip­tion of the cul­ture and goals of Whole Foods, Intel, and Face­book straight from the lead­ers of the companies.
  57. Intel founder Noyce says he “rejected the idea of a social hier­ar­chy” (186), and there may be some truth to that, but to take seri­ously the idea that other Sil­i­con Val­ley CEOs have adopted a peer net­work approach one would have to avoid look­ing at any list of the world’s wealth­i­est people.
  58. Dis­parag­ing the edu­ca­tion sys­tem. My par­ents were both teach­ers, and my father did teacher train­ing for many years, so I have absorbed some feel­ing for the dif­fi­cul­ties of mak­ing schools effec­tive. But never fear, the peer pro­gres­sives are here. After a whole page of think­ing about the prob­lems of schools SBJ con­cludes that they would be bet­ter if they were run like Whole Foods Mar­kets, because “peer pro­gres­sives want do do away with the bureau­cra­cies as well as the union men­tal­ity. They want schools to be run like EOBs (employee-owned busi­nesses), where teach­ers are share­hold­ers in an enter­prise that grows more vali­able as it reaches its goal” (192). And that’s it. No notes, no ref­er­ences to other thinkers. It becomes clear what it means to be an opti­mist, to be a prag­matic peer pro­gres­sive. Thou­sands, per­haps mil­lions of peo­ple have thought long and hard about edu­ca­tion sys­tems and their prob­lems, but it is fine to ignore them all and still be an opti­mist. Instead, one can wave a few sen­tences of lazy thought in their direc­tion, con­fi­dently assert­ing that this is the way for­ward: yet to ques­tion this is pre­sum­ably to be cyn­i­cal and neg­a­tive. I’m sorry, but this is not opti­mism, and it is not prag­ma­tism, it is the juve­nile hubris of the know-it-all.
  59. Face­book does not “want to strengthen the social ties that allow humans round the planet to con­nect, orga­nize, con­verse, and share” (193). It does not “con­sider the cul­ti­va­tion and pro­lif­er­a­tion of Baran Webs to be its defin­ing mis­sion”. It just says it does. The onus is on the author to show the truth of the state­ment, and he does not.
  60. The Face­book plat­form” is not “a con­tin­u­a­tion of the Web and Inter­net plat­forms that lie beneath it” (193). Face­book is the biggest cen­tral­ized sys­tem ever built: a bil­lion peo­ple con­nected to a sin­gle of servers, medi­ated by a sin­gle set of poli­cies, mak­ing money for a sin­gle set of share­hold­ers. One Server Farm to Rule Them All.
  61. Faced with the immense wealth of the early Face­book investors, and the per­sonal con­trol that Mark Zucker­berg has, SBJ admits that there is mas­sive cog­ni­tive dis­so­nance in the “peer net­work” idea. But his solu­tion is sim­ply to hope: “top-down con­trol is a habit that will be hard to shake… But the empir­i­cal track record of con­scious cap­i­tal­ists and employee-owned busi­nesses sug­gests that we might have been focus­ing on the wrong ele­ments all along.” (195)
  62. Believ­ing that strug­gle is unnec­es­sary. It is not men­tioned any­where in the book.

Date: 2012-12-15 22:49:53

Org ver­sion 7.8.10 with Emacs ver­sion 23

What Cascade Theories Don’t Tell Us

Atten­tion con­ser­va­tion notice: 3,000 words of ama­teur rumi­na­tion on the prob­lems with agent-based the­o­ries of upris­ings. Part of a series about iden­tity, insti­tu­tions, and upris­ings.

In the tor­rent of debate over the causes and dynam­ics of the “Arab Spring” upris­ings, one of the strongest cur­rents has its source in cas­cade mod­els of upris­ings. The start­ing points for these  mod­els are Mark Granovetter’s sim­ple and abstract Thresh­old Mod­els of Col­lec­tive Behav­iour and Thomas Schelling’s sim­i­lar ideas in “Macro­mo­tives and Microbe­hav­iour”. If a pop­u­la­tion of indi­vid­u­als is pre­sented with a choice between A and B, and if each will choose A only if some num­ber of other peo­ple (their “thresh­old”) also choose A, then very small dif­fer­ences in the dis­tri­b­u­tion of thresh­olds can lead to very dif­fer­ent results. In some cases, every­one chooses A, in oth­ers every­one chooses B, in oth­ers, the pop­u­la­tion is split. One spark sput­ters; an iden­ti­cal spark starts a prairie fire.

Timur Kuran and Susanne Lohmann used these ideas to explain the sud­den and sur­pris­ing upris­ings of 1989 in East­ern Europe. Both drew atten­tion to the paucity of infor­ma­tion in an author­i­tar­ian state, about what oth­ers believe and about the nature of the state itself. Highly moti­vated pro­test­ers with a low thresh­old engage in dis­sent or protest and thereby reveal infor­ma­tion to other dis­grun­tled peo­ple about the breadth of dis­en­chant­ment, or about the nature of the state, or about the expe­ri­ence of other indi­vid­u­als in rela­tion to the state. Oth­ers join in and by doing so reveal more. And so it goes. With the right dis­tri­b­u­tion of thresh­olds, a sin­gle person’s action can light a fire that sweeps across a con­ti­nent. Sud­den, dra­matic upris­ings in author­i­tar­ian states are a switch from one equi­lib­rium to another as dis­sent draws back the veil of silence and peo­ple see each other, see the nature of the regime under which they live, and real­ize that every­one else sees it too.

Dig­i­tal cascades

A new twist has been added to the cas­cade mix by the 2009 revolt in Iran and the “Arab Spring” upris­ings that erupted in Tunisia two years ago. The highly-publicised role of social media posed new chal­lenges for the­o­ries of con­tentious pol­i­tics, and three related facets of the events of Spring 2011 made cas­cade the­o­ries appealing:

  • The sud­den, unex­pected nature of the upris­ings and their swift spread from coun­try to coun­try bring to mind the East­ern Euro­pean regimes in 1989–1990.
  • The lack of a strong, orga­nized oppo­si­tion dur­ing the early stages of the upris­ings is a chal­lenge for the­o­ries of social move­ments, and plays to the strengths of cas­cade models.
  • The promi­nent role of dig­i­tal tech­nol­ogy, and par­tic­u­larly social media, lends itself to network-based mod­els of society.

Cas­cade mod­els sug­gest that con­tentious pol­i­tics is an assur­ance game that can be solved so long as the trans­ac­tion costs asso­ci­ated with infor­ma­tion exchange are low enough. Accord­ing to a pop­u­lar nar­ra­tive, social media net­works lower those costs, ren­der­ing newly vul­ner­a­ble those states that rely for their sta­bil­ity on infor­ma­tion scarcity and on pref­er­ence fal­si­fi­ca­tion. In an information-rich world, the low-information equi­lib­rium is no longer tenable.

Cas­cade mod­els have, well, cas­caded out from acad­e­mia and into the main­stream world as the pri­mary way to under­stand the Arab Spring upris­ings. For one influ­en­tial state­ment, see Clay Shirky in For­eign Affairs, but a quick look through a bib­li­og­ra­phy of Arab Spring lit­er­a­ture (herehere) will reveal many more.

As the cur­rent gained strength, it absorbed a num­ber of trib­u­taries. One was the Haber­masian idea that a rich pub­lic sphere or a strong civil soci­ety is the fer­tile ground in which dis­con­tent can take root. Another stream focuses on the role of infor­ma­tion and the media, bring­ing com­mu­ni­ca­tion stud­ies and media stud­ies schol­ars into the cas­cade cur­rent. The end result is a cur­rent that has brought to the fore the role of social media in the Arab Spring, flow­ing into the sea of main­stream opin­ion. If you fol­low the River Nile of com­men­tary about “Twit­ter Rev­o­lu­tion” and “Face­book Rev­o­lu­tion” and “Rev­o­lu­tion 2.0″ upstream far enough you reaach the the­o­ret­i­cal source: Gra­novet­ter and Schelling, Kuran and Lohmann.

But it’s a long way from Gra­novet­ter to the Arab Spring, and along the way impor­tant things have been lost, and Mis­takes Have Been Made.

Caught in the Net

One of the lovely things about cas­cade the­o­ries is that they lend them­selves to sim­u­la­tions. Take that idea of a thresh­old, for exam­ple. Doesn’t it make sense that your thresh­old for action depends more on the actions of peo­ple in your social net­works than peo­ple in some dis­tant city that you’ve never met? So you can start doing com­puter sim­u­la­tions of cas­cades, and how they depend on net­work struc­ture, and how they depend on the den­sity of con­nec­tions, and… well, the pos­si­bil­i­ties are almost end­less. So net­work mod­els have become a com­mon way to extend the orig­i­nal sim­ple ideas in more sophis­ti­cated ways. New hypothe­ses get expressed as net­work mod­els, and the con­clu­sions feed back into the theory.

But all the sim­u­la­tions in the world don’t change the fact that adopt­ing a net­work model is an input to the the­ory, not an out­put, and that the net­work soci­ety per­spec­tive brings with it a whole set of assump­tions and pri­or­i­ties that need exam­i­na­tion. For exam­ple, adopt­ing a net­work model means rel­e­gat­ing orga­ni­za­tions and insti­tu­tions to the periph­ery, and mov­ing ideas of “self-organization”, con­nec­tiv­ity, and peer-to-peer com­mu­ni­ca­tion to the cen­tre — not because of any fac­tual con­clu­sion but because some con­cepts can be expressed nat­u­rally within a net­work model and oth­ers can’t. Con­cepts of sym­bol­ism, iden­tity, insti­tu­tions, and the dif­fi­culty of estab­lish­ing trust are hard to express and so get pushed aside or ignored com­pletely. The pop­u­lar­ity of agent-based mod­els doesn’t dis­prove the impor­tance of such con­cepts, it just makes us blind to them.

Infor­ma­tion and symbolism

Just as the cas­cade point of view has taken on the “net­work soci­ety”, so it has high­lighted the role of infor­ma­tion in author­i­tar­ian states, and hence the role of media and tech­nol­ogy in fos­ter­ing change. It’s true that infor­ma­tion in author­i­tar­ian states is lim­ited, almost by def­i­n­i­tion, but it’s a long way from that to the idea that the paucity of com­mon knowl­edge is what is hold­ing back upris­ings. Again, it’s easy to express ideas of infor­ma­tion flow across net­works within agent-based mod­els, but that doesn’t actu­ally tell us that infor­ma­tion flow in author­i­tar­ian soci­eties is the bar­rier to social change. Yes, there is some­thing of inter­est in the lens that infor­ma­tion pro­vides, but treat­ing it as the only lens of inter­est is too narrow.

Once you start swim­ming in the cas­cade cur­rent, you find your­self sur­rounded by like-minded indi­vid­u­als. It’s no sur­prise that agent-based the­o­ries have found fer­tile ground among those inter­ested in tech­nol­ogy. After all, technophiles are typ­i­cally happy with a focus on the role of infor­ma­tion, tend to have a math­e­mat­i­cal cast of mind, but are less happy with soci­o­log­i­cal con­cepts or social-historical inves­ti­ga­tions of social move­ments. Eco­nomic con­cepts and tech­niques find a wel­come home (trans­ac­tion costs and util­ity func­tions) while talk of col­lec­tive iden­tity is more dif­fi­cult to trans­late into agent mod­els. To be blunt, adopt­ing the agent-based out­look saves you a lot of work, because you don’t have to read all those his­tor­i­cal stud­ies of move­ments and orga­ni­za­tions and make up your mind about the issues they raise.

That there is some­thing of a cul­tural divide between the agent-based mod­el­ers and other cur­rents of the debate, such as those who study social move­ments, is not new to me of course: here is Andrew Walder:

The field of social move­ments and con­tentious pol­i­tics has been a pro­longed effort to estab­lish a soci­o­log­i­cal alter­na­tive to the more par­si­mo­nious the­o­ries of eco­nom­ics. The increas­ing insis­tence on the sub­jec­tive dimen­sions of mobilization—collective action frames, the for­ma­tion of col­lec­tive iden­ti­ties, the role of emotions—is essen­tially moti­vated by a feel­ing that the ini­tial empha­sis on orga­ni­za­tions, net­works, and polit­i­cal oppor­tu­nity struc­tures were not suf­fi­ciently dif­fer­ent from ratio­nal social choice mod­els to offer a fully soci­o­log­i­cal alternative.

Protests and other acts of dis­sent share many com­mon fea­tures. For one, they are often deeply sym­bolic acts. Pro­test­ers choose sym­bolic days on which to make their point (the 40th anniver­sary of the GDR), they focus their actions on national sym­bols (the storm­ing of the National Palace by the San­din­istas). Pre­sent­ing protest as information-revelation ignores the sym­bolic nature of protests, the impor­tance of demon­strat­ing “wor­thi­ness, unity, num­bers, and com­mit­ment”, the prac­tice of draw­ing from a shared reper­toire of actions, which other cur­rents of thought have shown to be impor­tant. At least, my read­ing of the lit­er­a­ture sug­gests that there is a lot of ver­biage around the basic the­ory, and some­times in this ver­biage there is ref­er­ence to the sym­bolic nature of the protests, but there’s lit­tle to actu­ally tie the words to the theory.

If schol­ars of social move­ments have demon­strated that iden­tity and its for­ma­tion are impor­tant moti­va­tors for polit­i­cal action, and if these fac­tors appear nowhere in the cas­cade mod­els that seek to explain sud­den polit­i­cal change, then there’s a gap in the theory.

Pref­er­ence fal­si­fi­ca­tion, or obedience?

In Timur Kuran’s work, the cen­tral con­cept of “pref­er­ence fal­si­fi­ca­tion” is grounded in the dis­tinc­tion between an inter­nal, pri­vate view­point and an exter­nally expressed opin­ion. There is, how­ever, a dif­fi­culty with ascrib­ing polit­i­cal func­tion to an inter­nal, psy­cho­log­i­cal state of mind. A diag­no­sis of “pref­er­ence fal­si­fi­ca­tion” is only pos­si­ble after the fact of an upris­ing. Before the fact, from a polit­i­cal point of view there is no observ­able dif­fer­ence between a nation of pref­er­ence fal­si­fiers and a nation of con­tented cit­i­zens, and to the extent that there is any observ­able dif­fer­ence between the two, pref­er­ence fal­si­fi­ca­tion loses its explana­tory power. Sim­i­larly, what is the observ­able dif­fer­ence before the upris­ing between Lohmann’s East Ger­man cit­i­zens, who each have bad expe­ri­ences with their gov­ern­ment but are unaware of its over­all bad per­for­mance, and an East Ger­many of cit­i­zens who have had good expe­ri­ences with their government?

The con­cept of pref­er­ence fal­si­fi­ca­tion makes it dan­ger­ously easy to read one’s own assump­tions and views into the lives of oth­ers. The dan­ger becomes appar­ent in Kuran’s book-length explo­ration of pref­er­ence fal­si­fi­ca­tion. He treats affir­ma­tive action in Amer­i­can soci­ety as a case of pref­er­ence fal­si­fi­ca­tion, in which the “real” feel­ings of the silent major­ity were (are?) opposed to affir­ma­tive action, but were not voiced because “to voice mis­giv­ings is to invite cen­sure. Con­scious of the risks, Amer­i­cans have tended to hide their reser­va­tions behind a veneer of pub­lic con­sent” (p 222), a claim that many would con­sider exag­ger­ated, at least. He is quick to inter­pret an incor­rect poll on the eve of Nicaragua’s 1990 elec­tion as evi­dence of oppres­sion by the San­din­istas over the pre­vi­ous decade. And while Kuran spends much time on pref­er­ence fal­si­fi­ca­tion under Soviet Bloc com­mu­nism, he has noth­ing to say about 1930s Fas­cist Europe. What does the con­cept of pref­er­ence fal­si­fi­ca­tion have to say about lack of suc­cess­ful inter­nal upris­ings against the gov­ern­ments of Nazi Ger­many and Fas­cist Italy? Were these cases of fal­si­fied pref­er­ences that did not have a chance to be unfal­si­fied, or did the pop­u­lace “really believe” in the offi­cial ide­ol­ogy? And is the dis­tinc­tion between the two polit­i­cally mean­ing­ful or did Hanna Arendt have it right when she wrote that “pol­i­tics is not like the nurs­ery; in pol­i­tics obe­di­ence and sup­port are the same”.

The Arendt quo­ta­tion comes from a per­sua­sive essay by Xavier Mar­quez, “On the Mean­ing of Polit­i­cal Sup­port”. Mar­quez goes on to quote Robert F. Worth of the New York Times writ­ing about the fall of Gaddafi: “Every­one in Tripoli, it seemed, had been with Qaddafi, at least for show; and now every­one was against him.” Here is Mar­quez at length:

Were these peo­ple deceiv­ing them­selves or oth­ers? Did the sol­diers really sup­port Gaddafi in the past but now do not? Do some of these peo­ple sup­port Gaddafi still? The ques­tion makes less sense to me than it once did. It is clear that they once obeyed Gaddafi and now do not… but to attempt to deter­mine if, in their heart of hearts, these peo­ple sup­ported Gaddafi then (net of all of these forces) and now do not seems slightly absurd. Their obe­di­ence and dis­obe­di­ence, sup­port and lack of sup­port are noth­ing but the vec­tor prod­uct of all the forces (threats of coer­cion, pos­i­tive incen­tives, beliefs about Gaddafi, idio­syn­cratic likes and dis­likes, moral con­vic­tions, obscure and half-formed ideas about the future, etc.) oper­at­ing through them. It may make sense to attempt to dis­en­tan­gle these forces if we are inter­ested in legal or moral respon­si­bil­ity, or in the pri­vate tragedies of every­day life in Libya, but it does not make sense to me to attempt to fig­ure out if Gaddafi enjoyed some “gen­uine” level of sup­port (inde­pen­dent of coer­cion, money, etc.) as a sep­a­rate explana­tory factor.

It’s not that there is noth­ing to pref­er­ence fal­si­fi­ca­tion, but it has come to occupy a sta­tus of ortho­doxy, and it has pushed other mech­a­nisms into unde­served obscu­rity. In Steven Pfaff’s excel­lent “Exit-Voice Dynam­ics and the Col­lapse of East Ger­many”, which presents a rich and mul­ti­fac­eted account of the events of 1989, I could not help but see a ten­sion: it seemed to me that he falls back on pref­er­ence fal­si­fi­ca­tion as expla­na­tion more often than he would like to (although he does point to other mech­a­nisms) because of the absence of alter­na­tive frame­works in which to think.

Safety in numbers?

Finally, some­where in the mid­dle of most cas­cade mod­els there is a “safety in num­bers” assump­tion. Lohmann (on p92 of her major arti­cle) writes that the cost of protest “is assumed to be decreas­ing in the turnout… This assump­tion can be moti­vated with the ‘safety in num­bers’ char­ac­ter­is­tic of the tech­nol­ogy of sup­pres­sion: given the amout of resources a regime devotes to sup­press­ing mass protest, it is plau­si­ble that a higher num­ber of activists is asso­ci­ated with a lower like­li­hood that any one activist will expe­ri­ence injury, death, or impris­on­ment.” Kuran writes “The exter­nal pay­off to sid­ing with the oppo­si­tion… is apt to become increas­ingly favor­able… with S (the size of pub­lic oppo­si­tion). The larger S, the smaller the indi­vid­ual dissenter’s chances of being per­se­cuted for his iden­ti­fi­ca­tion with the opposition.”

This assump­tion is weak. An action that the gov­ern­ment could afford to ignore dur­ing a period of polit­i­cal calm can­not be ignored if it gets big enough. Tien­an­men Square did not become a safer place the more peo­ple gath­ered, and nei­ther does Tahrir Square: per­haps quite the oppo­site. Many protests are delib­er­ately risk-seeking, actively look­ing to pro­voke a response from the gov­ern­ment. As Gandhi said, “The func­tion of a civil resis­tance is to pro­voke response and we will con­tinue to pro­voke until they respond or change the law.”

Do peo­ple join large protests because it is safer than join­ing small protests? Or do they join them because, for exam­ple, large protests sim­ply mat­ter more? When a coun­try polar­izes, the cen­tral issues become deeper divid­ing lines between sup­port­ers of the sta­tus quo and those in oppo­si­tion. The ques­tion “which side are you on?” becomes one that has to be answered.

Wrap­ping Up

What I’ve tried to say is that there are under­ex­plored weak­nesses in the cas­cade the­ory descrip­tion of upris­ings which have con­tin­u­ing impacts on cur­rent debates, not only in the aca­d­e­mic world, but in the wider world — even includ­ing the deci­sions and actions of dis­si­dents in per­ilous cir­cum­stances. The weak­nesses lie in the notions of pref­er­ence fal­si­fi­ca­tion, in assump­tions about safety in num­bers, in assump­tions built into the net­work mod­els con­structed on top of cas­cade mod­els, and in blind spots regard­ing the forms of polit­i­cal action, the impor­tance of sym­bols, the roles of insti­tu­tions, the for­ma­tion of iden­tity, and other fac­tors that shape the events around sud­den upris­ings. The effects of these weak­nesses are ampli­fied by the enthu­si­as­tic adop­tion of cas­cade mod­els, sup­ple­mented by loose analo­gies and anec­dotes as if they form part of the the­ory itself, and have a dis­tort­ing effect on our under­stand­ing of these events, mak­ing it easy to see some pat­terns and dif­fi­cult to see oth­ers. Of course, it would be eas­ier to counter the influ­ence of information-driven cas­cade the­o­ries if there were alter­na­tive approaches that also repro­duced the dra­matic “cas­cade” results. More on that next time.

 Org ver­sion 7.8.10 with Emacs ver­sion 23