Don’t be Pompous

Let’s get this straight – I don’t have anything  against Google any more than I do any other company. But there are times when it just goes out of its way to be a pretentious prat. Today is such a day.

Here is Google’s unbelievable official response to the Microsoft attempt to buy Yahoo!  How about this for a paragraph:

Could Microsoft now attempt to exert the same sort of inappropriate and
illegal influence over the Internet that it did with the PC? While the
Internet rewards competitive innovation, Microsoft has frequently
sought to establish proprietary monopolies — and then leverage its
dominance into new, adjacent markets.

We take Internet openness, choice and innovation seriously. They are the core of our culture.

The beauty of this stance is that you can play the openness and innovation off against each other. Google’s important software is just as proprietary, closed source, and hidden as that of Microsoft – in fact more so because M$ has shared source agreements with many companies while Google’s core technologies are not shared with anyone. Google does not disclose information about things like water consumption at its server stations because it’s a "competitive matter"; Google buys properties under other names because it can get a better deal. In cases like these where Google wants to be secretive they pull the innovation card and talk about innovation and the need to  prosper in a competitive market.

When Google wants to promote technologies that are complementary to its own, it makes them open source (for example, in its sponsorship of Firefox browser development) and talks in idealistic terms about "the community". The overlap of interests between Google and its "communities" is partial at best, however, and such talk is cheeky, to say the least, coming from some of the world’s richest people. And if making its advertising-driven wealth isn’t leveraging its dominance in search into new, adjacent markets then I don’t know what is.

In the end, Google and Microsoft are both profit-maximizing companies. No matter how much they couch their goals in suitably vague idealistic terms ("don’t be evil" and the "freedom to innovate" respectively) they respond to the incentives faced by all such institutions. I just wish they’d be up front about it and not put out the kind of drivel that Google did today.

Long Tail of Books? Actually No.

Thanks to Dave for seeing an article I missed in the paper this morning.

Although lots of people talk about how the fragmenting of mass culture is changing, it turns out no one is actually doing anything about it, so we end up with influential but sloppy books based on an anecdote, a hunch, and a whistle.

Now we have the Canadian Heritage-commissioned Book Retail Sector in Canada report about the book market in Canada. Here are some numbers:

  • The overall trend is "more sales for fewer books.”
  • Number of new titles from Canadian publishers: 12,000 in 1998 to 17,000 in 2004 (40% growth).
  • Total unit sales over the same period: up only 11%.
  • As a result "both the average sales per title in Canada and the average print runs in many title categories have been falling in recent years"
  • Of the 675,000 titles available in in Canada in 2006, 45% did not sell a single copy.
  • 10,000 titles (2.7%) accounted for 64% of unit sales.
  • 500 titles (less than 0.1%) accounted for 22% of unit sales.
  • In 2006 Indigo accounted for 44% of domestic book sales; independent bookstores 20%, non-traditional retail (Costco, hardware stores etc) 20% and online booksellers only 4%.
  • Average household expenditure on books: $106.
  • Promotion matters: "a title’s placement and promotion within retail outlets is a highly important selection filter for book shoppers faced with a huge range and volume of available books."
  • Indigo’s Toronto-based buying team buys for all Indigo stores in the country; if an Indigo buyer decides not to carry an individual book, the publisher of that title effectively loses access to roughly half of the Canadian retail channel.

There’s a lot more in the report, which is likely to be a benchmark for some time.

Barbie slinks back to the confines of feminist-criticism symposia

Bad news for Yochai Benkler. In his celebration of the Internet, The Wealth of Networks, Benkler writes this (p 277):

A nine-year-old girl searching Google for Barbie will quite quickly find links to AdiosBarbie.com, to the Barbie Liberation Organization (BLO), and to other, similarly critical sites interspersed among those dedicated to selling and playing with the doll. The contested nature of the doll becomes publicly and everywhere apparent, liberated from the confines of feminist-criticism symposia and undergraduate courses. This simple Web search represents both of the core contributions of the networked information economy. First, from the perspective of the searching girl, it represents a new transparency of cultural symbols. Second, from the perspective of the participants in AdiosBarbie or the BLO, the girl's use of their site completes their own quest to participate in making the cultural meaning of Barbie. The networked information environment provides an outlet for contrary expression and a medium for shaking what we accept as cultural baseline assumptions. Its radically decentralized production modes provide greater freedom to participate effectively in defining the cultural symbols of our day. These characteristics make the networked environment attractive from the perspectives of both personal freedom of expression and an engaged and self-aware political discourse.

Got all that? Benkler actually lists the first page of Google results for a search on "barbie":

barbie.com
Barbie Collecter
AdiosBarbie.com
Barbie Bazaar
If You Were a Barbie, Which Messed Up Version would you be?
Visible Barbie project (macabre images…)
Barbie: The Image of us all (1995 undergraduate paper)
Andigraph.free.fre (Barbie and Ken sex animation)
Suicide bomber Barbie
Barbies (dressed and painted as countercultural images)

Well, that was a couple of years ago. Here's what googling barbie on January 26, 2008 gets you:

Barbie.com – Activities and Games for Girls Online! (together with eight other links to My Scene, Evertythingggirl, Polly Pocket, Kellyclub, and so on).
Barbie.co.uk – Activities and Games for Girls Online!
Barbie – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Barbie Collector -     (The official Mattel site for Barbie Collector)
Barbie Girls
Mattel – Our Toys – Barbie
The Distorted Barbie
YouTube – barbie girl – aqua
Barbie – Barbie Dress up – Fashion for Barbie
Barbie.ca

The distorted barbie site does still makes the list, and the Aqua parody video is still there, but this search is basically owned by Mattel. Clicking the top link takes you to a pink page with "Think Pink" written in the middle of it, and the majority of the sites feature pink prominently.

No more defining the cultural symbols of our day for you, nine-year-old girl! Quit the self-aware political discourse and get back to dressing that doll in gender-appropriate colours (as selected for you by Mattel).

Update: 2009 results.

Beyond Defending the State

The other day I mentioned that I had a posting up at the Relentlessly Progressive Economics blog. For all those who wanted to read the piece, but just couldn’t bring themselves to click the link, here is that posting.


The recent PFE blog post by Robert Chernomas and Ian Hudson is a wholesome read. It reminds us that markets and private enterprise deserve less credit than they receive for our current prosperity, such as it is; it lays out the contribution of the state to innovation; it reminds us that unregulated markets are hazardous and often crooked; and it points out that cornerstone social democratic policies such as a healthy minimum wage don’t have the dire side effects conservative economics would have us believe they do.

And yet it makes depressing reading.

I’m not here to pick a fight with Chernomas and Hudson (it was a short excerpt from a bigger piece, after all), but it touched a nerve because for all my adult life (ie since the late ’70s) I’ve been reading the same defensive tone from left-wing economists and after thirty years it’s getting a little stale. Is defending the role of the state the best we can do? I hope not because it’s not enough.

Just to get back to basics, how many of us became left wing because of a belief in the beneficent power of the state per se? Not me and almost certainly not you. Most of us are left wing because we believe that, left to itself, economic wealth is used to exploit the poorer and weaker in society and that the best response to such exploitation is, the the words of Pete Seeger, to stick together. I don’t see the word "state" there. Yes, a democratic state has the potential to be a levelling instrument in an unequal society. But it’s not the only such instrument and it’s not always a reliable one.

The non-economist left is not always so cozy with the state. I look on my bookshelf and see titles from the UK in the 1970’s like Pluto Press’s In and Against the State, and Ralph Miliband’s The State in Capitalist Society. They both have harsh words for the institutions of the capitalist state and they identify forces that cause those institutions to act on behalf of the economically powerful. Once you move away from economic policy, most of us on the left are decidedly ambivalent about the state. State institutions have oppressive tendencies; nuclear-armed states are dangerous; the state defends the interests of the powerful. So why, when it comes to economics, are we so tied to the state?

I think it’s because the left is a victim of its own successes. The structural achievements of the post-war world are the great social democratic institutions rooted in the state: the construction of social security, the provision and expansion of public schooling and post-secondary education, public healthcare. We’ve identified with these achievements, so ever since Thatcher & Reagan we have stood as conservative (small c) defenders of the state against the market-populist radicals.

Unfortunately a siege mentality does not encourage adventurous ideas or internal debate, and as a result unorthodox economic ideas on the left, at least the public expression of them that I’m aware of, has been stifled. As a non-economist, it seems to me that our attitude to economic ideas that don’t stem from the state-driven social democratic tradition is too often one of suspicion. I’d love to be proven wrong…

Statist social democratic institutions are not the only tradition that we have. We have traditions of self-government from the co-operative movement, we have traditions from the trade union movement of course, from community-focused movements and small-scale economic organizations, and from social protest. The feminist movement has a far more ambivalent relationship to the state than the traditional left. So maybe we can look at some of these for non-state driven left-wing economic ideas too.

What’s more, the world has changed in the last thirty years. It need not be defeatist to say that the policy prescriptions of 1970 may not make sense today. After all, would we expect the policies and goals of socialists and social democrats in 1948 to be the same as those of 1910?

Here is a scatter shot list of policy areas, mainly micro-economic, in which left-wing innovation seems possible, but is happening slowly if at all in Canada. I do hope that I’m missing things. Can readers can put me right?

  • Corporate ownership  The left has a long tradition of supporting worker ownership. A successful example is the John Lewis Partnership that has a prominent position on Britain’s High Street. It’s commercial, it’s a business, and it’s worker owned. Have we seen any policy initiatives that encourage and promote this kind of corporate governance?
  • Corporate taxation In one blog comment I  asked Erin Weir whether the Scandinavian model of low corporate taxation makes sense in Canada. He thought not, but it makes sense to me that in looking at progressive taxation we should direct tax efforts at the owners of corporations, not necessarily the corporations themselves.
  • Innovation  Is there a left-wing innovation policy that goes beyond university research to industrial development, and if so what would it look like? The most interesting idea I’ve seen recently is the suggestion of replacing pharmaceutical patents by prizes, supported by Stiglitz and others (short PDF here). Has this idea been followed up in Canada?
  • Post-secondary education  Historically, the left has been opposed to means testing. But historically we didn’t have computers. Stephen Gordon at Worthwhile Canadian Initiative recently argued that the best way to increase the accessibility of post-secondary education is not through cutting tuition fees for all, but through targeted subsidies. When I challenged him on means testing he replied that "if we can handle the GST credit, why not use the same data for tuition subsidies?" Makes sense to me (even though I am forking out too much money for my son’s university).
  • Microfinance and community initiatives  How does the left feel about the Grameen Bank and its emulators? The movement has been praised and damned from both left and right. Surely there is something there that has relevance to the Canadian experience? I know I dislike the focus of microfinance organizations like kiva.org on "entrepreneurs", but perhaps that is just a generational linguistic shift I am not prepared to make. There is also a sense of solidarity in such movements, and a direct approach to providing support for powerless people to take control of their own lives – surely a left-wing goal.
  • Public health The debate on health is always phrased in terms of a public system versus a private system, but one of the most successful social health initiatives of the last few decades was sparked by efforts outside both these spheres. The building of a network of sexual assault/rape crisis centres in many of our cities came from feminist activists (see here (PDF) for example) and remains, if I understand it right, at arms length from government. While government funds have been used (and more could be needed) these have not always been state institutions. Are there ways to emulate the success of this movement in other areas of our society, and what policies would promote this kind of emulation?
  • Small Business  Our relationship to small businesses is ambivalent. We support them when we talk about communities and worry about the impact of big-box stores coming to town, but we don’t see them as a partner in an economic sense. What kinds of small-business economic initiatives have come from the left?
  • Cities and towns  The Jane Jacobs tradition of diversity and small-scale thinking is one that many on the left love, even while some on the right think she’s a great thinker too. She was no fan of central planning of course, but she’s also no fan of letting cities just grow according to commercial dictates. Why has the left’s adoption of her ideas has been piecemeal? Initiatives at the city level (especially in transit/traffic and housing) seem small-scale, but have the potential to spread from country to country in a remarkable way as activists and planners search for inspiration. The London traffic congestion charge and the bike-friendly initiatives of places like Lyons (now spreading to Paris) act as experiments that can be modified and built-on by others.

Well, that’s probably a confused list. What initiatives have I missed? Is the Canadian economic left less hidebound than I give it credit for?

Guest blog at Relentlessly Progressive Economics

Despite not being an economist, I’m a member of the Progressive Economics Forum. Today I have a post up at their Relentlessly Progressive Economics blog (RPE), courtesy of Marc Lee, entitled "Beyond Defending the State".

RPE has a lot of good material despite its inclusion of my post, with regular contributors including economists at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, the CAW/TCA, and the CLC among others.

“The Big Picture, Which Is That There Isn’t Any”*

Four related observations:

  • Kieran Healy writes that rates of organ donation depend less on "this or that policy in general" (markets vs donations, presumed consent vs. informed consent) than on the organizational underpinnings of the procurement system. "Reform of the rules governing consent is often accompanied by an overhaul and improvement of the logistical system, and it is this—not the letter of the law—that makes a difference. Cadaveric organ procurement is an intense, time-sensitive and very fluid process that requires a great deal of co-ordination and management. Countries that invest in that layer of the system do better than others, regardless of the rules about presumed and informed consent."
  • Dani Rodrik writes that the level of economic growth among underdeveloped countries depends on adopting a "second-best mindset". It is wrong to presume, as the IMF does, that "it is possible to determine a unique set of appropriate institutional arrangements ex ante and [view] convergence towards those arrangements as inherently desirable" or that there is a single set of "best practices" that, so long as you follow them as closely as you can, will lead to success. Instead, things go better if you focus on the particularities of an individual country and design around those.
  • Margaret Wente talks to Howard Fuller of Milwaukee’s school voucher system. He points out that the success or failure of the program has a lot to do with how it is implemented in each individual school and not so much with the overall framework.
  • My brother tells me that the British High Street now has shareholder-owned stores (Marks & Spencer etc) next to stores owned by private funds (Debenhams) next to worker-owned co-ops (John Lewis). Perhaps the success or failure of a company depends less on the ownership model and more on other details.

The common thread is that the big decisions and big ideas make less of an impact than the low-level, detailed specifics of each situation. Faced with a big strategic choice between A and B, many aspects of the world are not like this

         |——–A———|                |———B———|

but are more like this:

    |——–A———|
|———B———|

You can take either A or B and still be a success or a failure.

It’s a small step from there to saying that people at the top of large organizations (whether they be governments or countries) have surprisingly little influence and that we should not pay much attention to broad pronouncements and grand visions. It’s people dealing with everyday problems that we should pay attention to.

Or, as George Bernard Shaw said "The golden rule is that there are no golden rules".

* The title comes from Jon Elster, responding to a review by Aaron Swartz of his book "Explaining Social Behavior"
            

The Big Switch

The Big Switch, by Nicholas Carr, is published by W.W.Norton, January 2008. Quotes and page numbers are from an advance copy.

Unlike most technology commentators Nicholas Carr knows that if you want to predict what’s happening next, you’ve got to follow the money. And he does so very well, which makes this book (and his weblog) recommended reading for anyone interested in where  technology is taking us.


Google is everywhere in The Big Switch and the reason is simple: cost.

No corporate computing system, not even the ones operated by very large businesses, can match the efficiency, speed and flexibility of Google’s system. One analyst [Martin Reynolds of the Gartner Group: see here ] estimates that Google can carry out a computing task for one tenth of what it would cost a typical company.

That means, if you are a company and you have a computing task to be done that Google already does, you can save a bunch of money and you can now start outsource your CPU cycles just as you previously outsourced other tasks. And that means that the computing landscape will get shaken up. Not in a matter of months, but over the next decade or so. It’s amazing how quickly we get used to a landscape and many of us are now so accustomed to PC’s and the basic layout of corporate computing systems that they seem almost natural. But Carr warns us that this is going to change and, as if to confirm his claims, last week Sun Microsystems, supplier of many of the computers that make up corporate data centres, announced that by 2015 it won’t have a single data centre.  Information Technology is not sacrosanct.

Google’s cost advantage comes partly from a built-in inefficiency of corporate computing: capacity underutilization. Many applications demand their own servers, and those servers must be able to handle the peak load that the application will experience even if that peak load happens only rarely. As a result most corporate computers, most of the time, do nothing except consume electricity and produce heat. This inefficiency was unavoidable until recently, but now high-speed Internet availability makes it possible for companies that have the resources (Google and a few others) to build warehouses full of servers that look like power stations (see Google’s The Dalles centre in Oregon, below, with two football-stadium-sized buildings full of perhaps 60,000 servers). And then they can supply CPU cycles over the Internet just like electrical utilities supply electricity. The demand on Google’s CPU cycles is smoothed out, being balanced among many consumers in different timezones with different needs, and that only helps their efficiency. It’s what Carr calls utility computing.

The first half of The Big Switch is given over to convincing us that utility computing is the wave of the future, and the second half of the book explores the implications – many of them disturbing – of this switch. The good news is that both are thought-provoking and open up a lot of questions. The less good news is that to cover all this ground Carr has to skim and, at 250 pages, this short book can’t delve very deeply into any of the questions.

The argument for the switch to utility computing is made by drawing an analogy between the history of electricity supply and the history of computing. A century ago factories generated their own electricity and many of the fears that people have of outsourcing computing were faced by the nascent electrical industry. Would companies trust their lifeblood to an external source? Can they the get guarantees they need to go over to this new model? History shows that they did, and quickly. Will computing go the same way? Carr says yes.

I broadly agree (in the long run) but there are reasons to think the Big Switch may be less than complete. First, there is an intermediate solutuion that companies are already adopting, which is "virtualization software" that allows them to run many "virtual computers" on a smaller number of real computers, so making better use of the real CPU cycles. The technology is booming and the savings are huge. And while this may still be more expensive than the full-fledged utility model, to the extent that many software packages are customized for individual companies (not so much word processors and so on as the ERP systems that many companies run their business on) a utility model may not be applicable. Whether the benefits of custom applications will win out over the cheapness of commodity software is open to debate. Second, while electricity is a relatively simple thing, computing is complex. Carr only scratches the surface of what forms utility computing will take. Will companies and consumers pay bills for complete applications (the salesforce.com model), for storage (Amazon’s S3, for example), for virtual computers on which they can install their own applications (now also starting to be offered by Amazon), or what? And third, from the consumer side, the flip side of the unused CPU cycles efficiency argument is that we may be prepared to pay for a computer to run the latest games and then, well, the marginal cost of using those CPU cycles is very low.  In fact, they are starting to be used (Seti @home and others) by central applications – rented back (or donated back) to others. It is clear that the utility model is making ground in the consumer space (how much of our time do we spend in the browser) but the reasons are, I think, different from the electricity analogy Carr pursues.

But this is splitting hairs, because the broad trend Carr identifies is surely largely correct, even if it takes a decade or two for the switch to be made. We’ll still have a lot of computing cycles happening everywhere, but perhaps it may turn out to be true that the world really does need only five computers. And if there are limitations to the expansion of the megacomputers because of the complexity of computing as a utility, well there are other limits to growth (national ones, legislative ones) that electrical utilities have always faced that don’t constrain Google, Amazon and our other suppliers.

So that’s part one. Part two is a welcome counterweight to the techno-utopian fluff put out by some prominent commentators. Carr covers the centralization of control (how mass participation ends up with just a few people getting loads o’ cash), what he calls "the great unbundling" – the change from buying whole albums/newspapers to viewing individual stories and how that may affect production – and the darker side of the web: spam, identity theft, loss of privacy, and so on. Of these, the best chapter is on unbundling because it’s just not clear to me how or why that phenomenon will work itself out. The argument is that (to take newspapers as an example) when advertizers sell by the click and when content cannot be sold for its own sake, newspapers lose the ability to fund such expensive endeavours as investigative reporting and foreign news desks. Cross-subsidization of different parts of a newspaper, Carr argues, is the only way that quality content has managed to keep being produced, and once that model goes then so does the quality.

There’s a lot of possibile futures here, and I wish Carr’s book was twice as long so he could explore some of them more seriously. In the end, the book is a survey more than a deep investigation, but it is a survey that asks the right questions and we could use more books like this to chart, and perhaps help alter the course, of technological change and its many social impacts.